Saamaynta ay ku yeelaneyso caalamiyeynta saamiyada shirkadaha ee xulashada Aasiya

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Saamaynta ay ku yeelaneyso caalamiyeynta saamiyada shirkadaha ee xulashada Aasiya

Daraasadani waxay ujeedadeedu tahay inay soo indha indheyso saameynta ay ku yeelaneyso dhaqaalaha caalamiga ah saamiyada shirkada oo lagu qiyaaso tusmada suuqa saamiyada iyadoo la adeegsanayo xogta gudiga ee xulashada wadamada Aasiya (Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, China, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, South) Kuuriya, Ruushka, Pakistan, Filibiin, Siri Laanka) intii lagu jiray 1997- 2013. Tijaabooyinka asaasiga ah ee cutubku waxay muujinayaan in doorsoomayaasha ay taagan yihiin heerka. Natiijooyinka baaritaanka F-test, Breusch-Pagan iyo Hausman waxay muujinayaan in saameynta goonida ah ee hal dhinac ah ay tahay in lagu dabaqo. Natiijooyinka waxay muujinayaan in caalamiyeynta dhaqaale ay si weyn u wanaajineyso tusmada suuqa saamiyada. Intaa waxaa dheer saamaynta togan iyo tan weyn ee saamiyada shirkaddu waxay kuxirantahay caalamiyeynta siyaasadeed iyo isbeddelka qallafsan, si kastaba ha noqotee, saameynta xun iyo tan weyn waxay la xiriirtaa heerka kobaca ee kharashka dowladda, sarrifka iyo saamaynta isdhexgalka ee dhaqaalaha.
Eray bixin: Kordhinta caalamiga ah, waxqabadka shirkadda, Tusaha dhaqaalaha adduunka (KOF), tusmada suuqa saamiyada, xogta guddiga.

1. Hordhac

geeddi socodku wuxuu saameeyaa deegaanka, dhaqanka, nidaamyada siyaasadeed, hay’adaha, horumarka dhaqaalaha iyo caafimaadka aadanaha adduunka oo dhan. Natiijo ahaan, ma jiro qeexitaan gaar ah oo caalamiyeynta ah. Xaqiiqdii, qeexitaanku wuxuu kuxiranyahay ujeedada iyo baaxada dooda. Iyadoo la raacayo, saamaynta ka midaysnaashaha caalamiga ayaa lagaga wada hadlayaa dhinacyo badan. Tusaale ahaan, qorayaasha qaar waxay xooga saaraan arrimaha dhaqaalaha (sida ganacsiga, maalgashiga tooska ah ee shisheeyaha, iwm) halka kuwa kale ay culeyska saaraan arrimaha siyaasadda (sida safaaradaha, tirada xubnaha ururada caalamiga ah, tirada qandaraasyada ay dalalka kale saxiixeen, iwm). ), ama kor u qaadista fikradaha bulshada (Karadagli, 2012). Laga soo bilaabo 80-kii sano ee dhaqaalaha adduunku wuxuu isu beddelay dhaqaale isku xidhan, hal dhinac oo ka sii yaraanaya kharashka gaadiidka iyo faafitaanka teknolojiyadaha macluumaadka iyo isgaarsiinta, ayaa hoos u dhigay fikradda masaafada, dhinaca kale, ganacsiga guud, maalgashiga tooska ah ee shisheeye, raasamaalka socodka iyo wareejinta tikniyoolajiyada si weyn ayey u kordheen. Sidaa awgeed waddamada badankood xiriir toos ah ayaa ka dhexeeya caalamiyeynta dhaqaalaha iyo saamiga shirkadda. FDI waxaa loo tixgeliyaa inay tahay tixraac caalamiyeynta. Tusaale ahaan, FDI-ka Shiinaha wuxuu ka kordhay 124 bilyan oo doolar 2006 ilaa 156 bilyan oo doolar 2007. Heerka suuqa saamiyada wuxuu gaaray 2675.47 ilaa 5261.56 muddadan. Iyo tusmada ku xusan Kuuriya sanadihii 2011 iyo 2012, waxay ahayd 4836 iyo 4999 milyan oo dollar siday u kala horreeyaan. Tusmada suuqa saamiyadeedu waxay ahayd 1825.74 iyo 1997.05 isla sannadahaas. Sidoo kale Ruushka intii lagu jiray sanadihii 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 iyo 2010, heerarka FDI waxay ahaayeen 15, 37, 55, 36, 43 bilyan oo doolar iyo qiimaha tusmada suuqa saamiyada, waa 1125.6, 1921.92, 2290.51, 1444.61, 1770.28 siday u kala horreeyaan. FDI-ka dalka Sacuudi Carabiya ayaa hoos uga dhacay 24-kii sanadkii 2007-dii ilaa 12-bilyan oo doolar sanadkii 2012. Qiimaha sicirka suuqa saamiyada ayaa hoos uga dhacay 6801.22 ilaa 11175.96 (Sida laga soo xigtay xogta WDI) Mid ka mid ah macnayaasha dhaqaala-dhaqaaleedka caalamiga ah ayaa ah is dhexgalka badan ee dhaqaalaha qaranka iyo dhaqaalaha adduunka. Isdhexgalka ayaa si weyn u saameynaya qaab-soo-saarka wax soo saarka gudaha ee shirkadaha, oo ay ku jiraan maalgashiga tooska ah ee shisheeye, xulashada macaamiisha iyo dhinacyada kale ee wax soo saarka iyo isticmaalka si weyn. Mid ka mid ah astaamaha caalamiyeynta dhaqaale waa isbeddelada qotada dheer ee waxqabadka shirkadda. Sidaas awgeed waddammada oo dhami saamayn badan ayey ku yeesheen ama ku yaraadeen isbeddelladan, waxayna ku sii socdeen waddada caalamiga ah. Sidaa awgeed ujeedka ugu weyn ee daraasaddan ayaa ah in la baaro saameynta ay leedaha caalamiyeynta dhaqaalaha ee saamiyada shirkadda ee dalalka Asia ee la xushay. Su’aasha ugu weyni waxay tahay in caalamiyeynta dhaqaale ay saameyn togan ku leedahay saamiyada shirkadaha?

Waa iska cadahay inay jiraan suugaan kaladuwan oo ku saabsan dhinac kasta oo caalamiyeynta heer-weyne iyo saameynta ay ku leeyihiin dhinacyada dhaqaalaha, bulshada, siyaasadda iyo dhaqanka ee ummadaha. Laakiin waxay u muuqataa in dhinacyo yar-yar oo arintan ka mid ah la dayacay. Karadagli (2012) wuxuu baarey saameynta ay ku yeelatay wax soo saar caalami ah waxqabadka shirkadaha toddobo dal oo kala ah Shiinaha, Baraasiil, Indooniisiya, Turkiga, Ruushka, Mexico, Hindiya intii u dhaxeysay sanadihii 1998 ilaa 2009. Daraasaddan, iyadoo la adeegsanayo xog ururin lagu soo gabagabeeyay in heerka waddan caalamiyeynta ayaa saameyn togan ku leh waxqabadka adag. Peltonen et al (2008) waxay falanqeeyeen saameynta gelitaanka soo gelintu ay ku leedahay faa iidada shirkadaha 15 warshadood oo wax soo saar u leh toban dal oo leh lacagta Euro inta lagu gudajiray 1955 ilaa 2004. Natiijooyinkooda waxay muujinayaan in tartanka soo dejinta ee wadamada soo koraya guud ahaan ay saameyn xun ku leeyihiin faa’iidada. shirkadaha wax soosaarka goobahan. Si kastaba ha noqotee, si ka duwan natiijooyinka Peltonen et al (2008), Georgiou (2009) ayaa ka warbixisay saameynta Wanaagsan ee caalamiyeynta (sida lagu cabiray soo celinta saafiga ah ee sinnaanta) ee dalalka Yurub. Pangarkar iyo Wu (2012) ayaa baaray heerka uu gaarsiisan yahay isku xirnaanshaha caalamiga ah wax u dhimidda waxqabadka shirkadaha warshadaha ee Shiinaha (suuq soo baxaya) muddadii u dhaxeysay 2001 – 1996. Natiijooyinka waxay muujiyeen in heerarka sare ee caalamiyeynta warshadaha ay saameyn togan ku leeyihiin waxqabadka shirkadda. Shiinaha. Mehravar (2009) wuxuu baarey saameynta ay ku yeelatay ganacsiga caalamiga ah ee gawaarida gaarka loo leeyahay ee Iran intii u dhaxeysay 1971-2006. Natiijooyinka waxay muujinayaan in caalamiyeynta dhaqaale ay saameyn cakiran ku leedahay keenista gawaarida gaarka loo leeyahay dhoofinta iyo waliba saameyn toos ah dalabkeeda soo dejinta labadaba muddada fog iyo tan dhowba.

2.- Saldhig aragtiyeed
Waxaa jira aragtiyo badan oo laxiriira ganacsiga caalamiga sida aragtida guud ee faa’iidada ee Adam Smith, faa’iidada isbarbardhiga ee Ricardo, iyo aragtida Heckscher-Ohlin. Laakiin aragtiyaha dhowaan soo baxay waxay ka soo if baxeen dhinaca ganacsiga iyo xiriirka ay la leeyihiin waxqabadka adag. Waxaad u arki kartaa aragtiyahaas kuwa soo socda:

2.1.- Qaabka Krugman

Krugman’s theory evaluates the effect of the economies scales in the World trade and it is called new trade theory. This theory was presented for the first time by Krugman in the Journal of International Economics in 1979 among similar countries. Krugman assumes that consumers obtain utility via goods diversity, through the production process, there are the economies of scale and the market structure is the monopolistic competition. Therefore, there are two reasons that the countries do trade to each other: First, trade will create more variety for consumers to choose their favorite items and it causes utility increasingly. The second reason is economy to scale. This means that when the countries do not trade with each other, the markets are small and limited. As a result the producers cannot achieve the advantage from the economies of scale and the production average

cost is high but when the trade is done between two countries, the effect of this trade is like as the effect of increasing population and any good is produced in the wider scale. Some of the firms that aren’t efficient and have high prices are removed from the market and production of efficient firms increases and causes the economies of scale (Krugman 1979).
2.2.- Aragtida xamaaliista ee ka faa’iideysiga tartanka

Dabayaaqadii 1980-meeyadii, mawjad cusub oo aragti caalami ah oo ganacsi ayaa ku soo galaysa suugaanta dhaqaalaha si loo buuxiyo yaraanta aragtiyaha caadiga ah. Baadhitaan kasta oo aragtiyadan ka mid ah waxay u baahan tahay waqti ku filan. Mid ka mid ah dhibaatooyinka aadka looga doodi karo aaggan waa ganacsiga caalamiga ah. Arrintan waxaa lagu magacaabaa faa’iido tartan. “Porter” wuxuu soo saaray buugga “The Competitive Advantage of Nations” sanadkii 1990 maadaama aasaasihii aragtidan uu yeeshay saamaynta sayniska ugu muhiimsan. In kasta oo ujeedka ugu horreeya ee buuggu yahay in la soo bandhigo sharraxaad ku saabsan guusha ay dalalku ka gaadheen tartanka caalamiga ah, laakiin falanqaynta Porter, shirkadahaasi waa kuwa ugu waaweyn ee tartanka iyo ganacsiga (Porter 1998). Saamaynta hal waddan ku leeyahay waxqabadka caalamiga ah ee tartan ee shirkaddu waa iyada oo loo marayo jawi u horseeda hanashada tartankiisa. Marka, doorka koowaad ee waddanku waa inuu siiyaa marti shirkado. Jawigaan martigelinta wuxuu abuuraa door muhiim ah si loo sameeyo aqoonsi adag, mudnaanta maareeyayaasha ugu sarreeya, habka loo wajahayo istiraatiijiyadda wax soo saarka iyo abaabulka iyo helitaanka iyo tayada ilaha loo baahan yahay. Aragtidani waxay muujineysaa in caalamiyeynta ay sababaan xiriiro isbeddelo ah oo saameeya waxqabadka tartanka shirkadaha iyo warshadaha. Daryeelka qaranku wuxuu inta badan ku xiran yahay hagaajinta faa’iidada tartanka ee dalka. Si looga faa’iideysto tartan rasmi ah, faa’iidada shirkadaha waa in ay kor u qaadaan iyada oo loo marayo hal-abuurnimo iyo maalgashi xagga soo-saarka ah arrimo horumarsan Hawshani waxay horseed u tahay kororka waxsoosaarka shaqada ee heer qaran waxayna kordhisaa dakhliga dhabta ah ee qofkiiba. Natiijo ahaan dhiirrigelinta tartiib tartiib ah ee shirkadaha ayaa wax ka beddeli karta xaaladda dhaqaalaha iyo warshadaha qaranka (Khanduzi 2005).

3.- Habka iyo Xogta

3.1.- Qeexitaanka xogta

Waxaan u adeegsanay tusmada suuqa saamiyada waddan kasta qiimeynta waxqabadka adag maxaa yeelay tani waa ujeeddada shirkaddu u leedahay inay kor u qaaddo nafteeda iyo saamigeeda saamileyda. Qiimahan waxaa lagu go’aamiyaa tusmada suuqa saamiyada ee shirkad, taas oo iyaduna ah jawaab celinta maalgashiga, dhaqaalaha iyo soo celinta saamiyada shirkadda. Sidaa darteed, tusmadani waa shuruud wanaagsan oo lagu qiimeeyo waxqabadka shirkad (Van Horne 1974), (Karadagli 2012). Tilmaamahan waxaa laga soo saaray suuqa saamiyada mid walba ku xusan dalka. Daraasaddan, waddammada Aasiya ee lahaa heerar isku mid ah tusmada suuqa saamiyada (ku-tiirsanaanta ku-tiirsan) waa la xushay oo waddammada kale ee Aasiya, oo ay ku jiraan Japan, Thailand, iyo wixii la mid ah ee leh qiimeyaal kala duwan ayaa laga saarayaa Tilmaamahani ma laha wax cabir ah oo qiimaha tusmada ee dhamaan wadamada la soo xulay waa 4-lambar sanadaha qaar iyo 5 lambar inta lagu jiro sanadaha kale. Sidaas darteed, dalalka la soo sheegay waa isku mid. Tusaha KOF waxaa bixiya machadka cilmi baarista ee Jarmalka sababtuna waa qiimeynta dhaqaalaha iyo siyaasadeynta adduunka. Tirakoobkan ayaa lagu cabiraa cabir kasta oo ka mid ah oo xogteeda ayaa la heli karaa. Soo gaabinta tilmaanta ereyga Jarmalka “Konjunkturforschungsstelle” oo macnaheedu waa machadka cilmi baarista ee meertada ganacsiga. Dreher ayaa horumariyay ka dibna wuxuu ku cusbooneysiiyaa Dreher, Gaston and Martens (2008). Intaa waxaa dheer machadka teknolojiyadda ee Swiss Federal Zurich ayaa bixiyay. Heerka isku-xirnaanta dhaqaalaha waxaa lagu go’aamiyaa socodka muddada dheer ee alaabada, raasamaalka iyo adeegyada iyo sidoo kale macluumaadka iyo fikradaha la xiriira is-weydaarsiga suuqa. Waxay ka kooban tahay socodka dhabta ah iyo xaddidaadaha. Ganacsiga, maalgashiga tooska ah ee shisheeye, hantida faylalka iyo lacagaha dakhliga ee foomka waddamada shisheeye socodka dhabta ah ee lagu muujiyey boqolkiiba waxsoosaarka. Soo dejinta caqabadaha qarsoon, qiimaha celceliska canshuuraha iyo canshuuraha ganacsiga caalamiga ah waxay ka kooban yihiin xaddidaadyo lagu muujiyey boqolley ahaan dakhliga iyo koontada raasumaalka hadda.

Tusaha Global Globalization wuxuu qeexayaa siyaasada dawlada, oo ay kujiraan doorsoomayaasha sida tirada safaaradaha, tirada xubnaha ururada caalamiga ah, tirada qandaraasyada lala saxiixday wadamada kale IWM. Faa’iidooyinka ay leedahay heerka qiimeynta Caalamiga ah, waxaa isticmaalay Derher (2006) markii ugu horreysay sida soo socota: Marka hore, waa qiimeyn aad u ballaadhan maxaa yeelay waxay tixgelisaa dhinacyada bulshada iyo siyaasadda, kuwaas oo tusmooyinka kale aysan sidan ahayn. Marka labaad, isku darka qaar ka mid ah tusmooyinka dhaqaalaha, sida xanibaadaha ganacsiga iyo ganacsiga iyo maalgashiga (tusaale ahaan, soo dejinta caqabadaha qarsoon, qiimaha celceliska canshuuraha, canshuuraha laga qaado ganacsiga caalamiga iyo xayiraadaha koontada raasamaalka). Saddexaad, si loo helo halbeeg guud oo caalamiyeynta ah, qaybaha ugu waaweyn ayaa la isticmaalay halkii laga isticmaali lahaa miisaanka aan loo meel dayin. Ugu dambeyntiina, tusmadan ayaa la cusbooneysiiyaa sanadkiiba. Xogta tusahani waa mid si fudud loo soo dejin karo asalkiisuna wuxuu dib ugu noqonayaa 1970. Sidoo kale wuxuu daboolayaa 207 dal. Safafka tusahan wuxuu ka socdaa boqol illaa boqol. Qiimaha ugu sareeya ee tusmadaani waxay muujineysaa in wadanku uu caalami yahay (Rao and Vadlamannati 2010). Heerka sicir bararka, heerka sarrifka, heerka kororka xisaabaadka ayaa ah doorsoomayaal saameeya waxqabadka adag (tusmada suuqa saamiyada) (Emad zadeh et al 2010). Heerka sarrifka waxaa loo xisaabiyaa inuu yahay qiimaha dhabta ah waxaana lagu helaa iyadoo lagu dhufanayo saamiga sicirka macmiilka Shiinaha iyo sicirka sicirka macaamiisha ee wadamada la xusay sida heerka sarrifka magacaaban. GDP waa isbeddel kale oo saameeya waxqabadka adag (tusmada suuqa saamiyada) (Pira’i, Shahsavar 2008). Kharashka dowlada waa mid kale oo saameyn ku leh waxqabadka shirkad (Vaez Barzani et al 2009). Dhamaan doorsoomayaasha la sheegay waxaa laga helay websaydhka WDI. Waxaa jira lagama maarmaan doorsoomayaal jilicsan, oo ay sabab u tahay Dhibaatada dhaqaale ee Bariga Aasiya intii u dhaxeysay 1997 ilaa 1998 iyo sidoo kale dhibaatada dhaqaale ee dhacday 2007 ilaa 2012. doorsoomaha Dummy waxaa loo tixgeliyaa mid inta lagu jiro xiisadda iyo eber haddii kale.

3.2.- Habka

Ujeedada daraasaddan ayaa ah in la indha indheeyo saameynta ay ku yeelaneyso dhaqaalaha caalamiga ah waxqabadka adag ee 12 dal oo laga soo xulay Aasiya (Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, China, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, Russia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka ). Daraasaddan waxaa lagu sameeyaa iyadoo la adeegsanayo xog sanadle ah muddadii u dhaxeysay 1997 ilaa 2013. Maaddaama aysan jirin xog ku filan, dariiqa guddi aan dheellitirnayn ayaa loo isticmaalay

Daraasaddan, qaar ka mid ah tijaabooyinka tirakoobka waxaa ka mid ah tijaabada isbeddelka isbeddelka, xididka unugga, saameynaha go’an, Breusch-Pagan, Hausman, tijaabinta ku xadgudubka fikradaha caadiga ah ee la sameeyay. Si loo naqshadeeyo qeexitaanka, tijaabada isbeddelka xad-dhaafka ah ayaa la sameeyaa.

Arrin aan rasmi ahayn ayaa saameyn xun ku yeelan karta dabeecadaha taxanaha waqtiga. Naxdin ku jirta taxanaha waqtiga taagan waxay soo saari kartaa oscillation sare. Isticmaalka xogta aan sugnayn waxay u horseedi kartaa dib-u-dhacyo qatar ah. Imtixaanka F-ANOVA ayaa loo adeegsaday si loo go’aamiyo saameynta ka dhalatay xogta gudiga ee ay ka kooban yihiin qeybta iskutallaabta iyo waqtiga taxanaha ah. Tijaabadani waxay xukumi doontaa in qaabka xogta gudigu yahay hal dhinac ama laba dhinac? Hadday hal dhinac tahay, ma nooc ka mid ah iskutallaabta ama xogta taxanaha waqtiga ayaa? Breusch-Pagan wuxuu isticmaalay laablaablayaasha Lagrange (LM) si uu u tijaabiyo xogta isku dhafan ee ka soo horjeedda laba dhinac oo saameyn aan kala sooc lahayn ah oo lagu helo habka qiyaasta suurtagalnimada ugu badan. Qiyaasta null ee tijaabadan waxay muujineysaa inay ka fiican tahay in la isticmaalo qaabka xogta isku dhafan. Diidmada mala-awaalka null waxay u horseedaa saameyn aan kala sooc lahayn qaabka. F, Breush-Pagan iyo Hausman imtixaanadu waxay muujinayaan inay tahay inaan ku dabaqno qaabka saamaynta go’an. Fikradaha tijaabadan waa sida soo socota: H0: Qiyaasaha saameynta go’an iyo saameynta aan kala sooca lahayn waa iswaafaqsan yihiin iyo H1: jiritaanka qaab saameyn go’an leh iyo diidmada qaabka waxqabadka aan kala sooca lahayn (Valipoor, Khorram, 2011). Dhamaadka nidaamkan waa inaan sameynaa baaritaanka saamiga kala duwanaanta, baaritaanka autocorrelation iyo imtixaanka Caadiga ah.

Ka dib Karadagli (2012) qaabka daraasaddan waa sida soo socota
Shaxda 1

Imtixaanka xididka unugga
Stock kofe Kofp expengr M2mr Inflationcr gdpm Exchang
Levin, -2.319 -2.301 -13.249 -12.401 -9.965 -14.491 -105.086 -6.992
line & (0.010) (0.010) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
chu
Nambarada ku jira qaybta muujinta heerka itimaalka.

Xigasho: helitaanka daraasaddan
Marka loo eego tijaabada isbeddelka isbeddelka, isbeddelada sicir bararka (Inflationcr) iyo qiimaha saxda ah ee wax soo saarka guud ee gudaha (gdpm) ayaa laga saaray qaabka. Imtixaanka F-ANOVA waxaa loo adeegsadaa in lagu sahamiyo jiritaanka shakhsiyaad (goob) hal dhinac oo saameyn ah. heerka tirakoobka iyo itimaalka ee tan
imtixaanku waa 0,000 iyo 256.941, siday u kala horreeyaan. Dhacdooyinka suurtagalnimada eber, null
mala-awaalka tijaabadan, oo tilmaamaysa adeegsiga qaab isku dhafan oo xog ah, waa la diidi doonaa oo H1 oo tilmaamaysa jiritaanka tusaalaha xogta guddi ee shakhsiga (Goobta) hal dhinac ayaa la aqbalayaa
heerka tirakoobka iyo itimaalka ee baaritaanka Breusch-Pagan (goobta hal dhinac ah) waa 0,000 iyo 80.95, siday u kala horreeyaan. Iyada oo ku saleysan natiijooyinka baaritaanka Breusch-Pagan, fikradda tilmaamaysa maqnaanshaha saameynta aan kala sooca lahayn ee goobta waa la diidi doonaa. Natiija ahaan, waxaa jira saameyn aan kala sooc lahayn oo goobta ah. Ugu dambeyntiina, waxaan qaadnay tijaabada Hausman ee hal dhinac dhinac ah si aan u xukunno in saameyno go’an ama aan kala sooc lahayn ay jiraan ama aysan jirin.
Qiyaasta tirakoobka iyo heerka itimaalka ee tijaabadani waa 0,000 iyo 48.83, siday u kala horreeyaan. Sidaa awgeed waxaan ku soo gabagabeyneynaa in qaabka saameynta go’an ee goobta lagu dabaqo.

Natiijooyinka baaritaanka Hausman waxay xaqiijiyeen saameynta go’an ee goobta inay jirto. Sidaa darteed, marka loo eego F-test iyo Breusch-Pagan iyo Hausman test, qaabka saamaynta go’an ayaa lagu dabaqi doonaa daraasaddan. Kadibna qaabka daraasaddan ayaa la qiyaasi doonaa. Habka ‘GLS’ waxaa loo adeegsadaa jiritaanka arrin otomaatik ah. Intaa waxaa dheer, AR (1) ayaa la adeegsadaa
Shaxda 2

Qiyaasta tusaalaha
variables 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
8.026*

(6.566) 8.363*

(4.474) 4.268

(1.147) 10.131**

(2.349) -18.694

(-1.034) -19.89

(-1.281) -13.69

(-1.055)
Log(Kofe) 0.14

(0.491) 0.147

(0.519) 2.186*

(3.386) 1.559*

(2.9) 8.302***

(1.726) 8.861**

(2.153) 7.417**

(2.198)
Log(Kofp) -0.079

(-0.275) 0.785

(1.064) 0.701

(0.965) 7.231***

(1.821) 7.657**

(2.243) 6.088***

(2.122)
Log(exchang) – -2.425* -2.45* -2.609* -2.318*
0000000000
1.791*
(-6.08)
(-6.838)
(-8.795)
(-6.666)
(-6.204)
M2mr 0.516 0.605 0.648 0.619
(1.324) (1.497) (1.645) (1.55)
Log(kofe)*log(kofp) -1.52 -1.635*** -1.351***
(-1.458) (-1.844) (-1.876)
expengr -0.439** -0.41**
(-2.189) (-1.992)
D1 0.155*

(3.531)
AR(1) 0.883*

(21.422) 0.884*

(21.428) 0.451*

(3.469) 0.435*

(3.279) 0.369*

(2.621) 0.354**

(2.39) 0.387*

(2.64)
D.W 2.37 2.38 1.94 2.08 2.02 2.09 2.05

Lambarada ku jira qaybta waa t-tirakoob. * Muhiim ku ah heerka 0.01 ** oo muhiim ku ah heerka 0.05 *** muhiim u ah heerka 0.1 Isha: helitaanka cilmi baaristaan Tijaabada saamiga farqiga ayaa leh heer macquul ah oo u dhigma 0.007, sidaa darteed mala-awaalka null ee ku saleysan saamiga kala duwanaanshaha waa la diiday. Marka loo eego natiijooyinka baaritaanka autocorrelation, autocorrelation ma jiro. Tijaabada caadiga ah ayaa la sameeyay. Iyada oo ku saleysan natiijooyinka baaritaankaan, heerka suurtagalku wuxuu la mid yahay 0.111, sidaa darteed mala-awaalka null ee tilmaamaya caadi ahaanshaha taxanaha haraaga lama diidin.
4.- Warbixin

Natiijooyinka guud ahaan waxay muujinayaan in tusaha dhaqaalaha adduunka uu saameyn la taaban karo ku leeyahay sheyga saamiyada, maxaa yeelay doorsoomahaani wuxuu saameyn isku mid ah ku leeyahay saamiyada shirkadda dhammaan toddobada tiir ee miiska la soo sheegay. Tusaale ahaan, sadarka 1.7, haddii doorsoomahaani kordho boqolkiiba hal, isugeynta saamiyadu way kordheysaa. Tusmada dunidoobey ee siyaasaddu waxay saameyn muuqata oo togan ku leedahay saamiga saamiyada ee dalalkan.

Tusaale ahaan, sadarka 1.7, haddii doorsoome-kiciyuhu kordho boqolkiiba hal, isugeynta saamiyadu waxay kordheysaa boqolkiiba 6.088. Heerka sarrifku saamayn weyn iyo taban ayuu ku leeyahay sicirka saamiyada. Tusaale ahaan, sadarka 1.6, haddii isbeddelkani kordhiyo boqolkiiba hal, heerka saamiga ayaa hoos u dhacaya boqolkiiba 2.609. Sida laga soo xigtay laba tiirar oo kala ah 1.6 iyo 1.7, saamaynta isdhexgalka ee dhaqaalaha iyo siyaasadaynta adduunka, waxay saamayn weyn iyo taban ku leedahay saamiga saamiyada.

Intaa waxaa sii dheer marka loo eego laba tiirar oo kala ah 1.6 iyo 1.7, heerka kobaca ee kharashka dowladda ayaa saameyn muuqata iyo mid xun ku leh saamiga saamiyada. Tusaale ahaan, haddii sadarka 1.7 isbeddelkani uu kordho boqolkiiba hal, heerka saamiga ayaa hoos u dhacaya ilaa boqolkiiba 0.41. Heerka kobaca hantida ayaa saameyn weyn ku yeelanaynin saamiga saamiyada.

5.- Gabagabadii
Daraasadani waxay sahamineysaa saameynta dhaqaalaha caalamiga ah ee waxqabadka adag iyadoo la adeegsanayo xogta gudiga wadamada Aasiya ee la xushay (Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, China, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Indonesia, South Korea, Russia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka) mudadaas. ee 1997-2013. Tijaabada xididka ayaa muujineysa in doorsoomayaasha ay istaagi karaan heerarka. Natiijooyinka F-test, Breusch-Pagan iyo

Tijaabada Hausman waxay muujineysaa in saameynta go’an ee hal dhinac ah ay tahay in lagu dabaqo. Qaabka la qiyaasay ayaa muujinaya in heerka caalamiyeynta dhaqaalaha uu si weyn u wanaajinayo heerka saamiga. Natiijooyinka cilmi-baaristani waxay soo jeedinayaan in saameynta togan iyo tan laxaadka leh ee ku aaddan isugeynta saamiyadu ay ku tiirsan tahay dhaqaalaha adduunka, caalamiyeynta siyaasadeed iyo isbeddellada dummy, hase yeeshee saamaynta taban iyo tan weynba waxay la xiriirtaa heerka kororka kharashka dowladda, sarrifka iyo isdhexgalka ee dhaqaalaha
Warqaddan, caalamiyeynta, waxay horseed u tahay hagaajinta keydka shirkadda. Marka loo eego qaabka la qiyaasay, haddii loo maleeyo xasilloonida xaaladaha kale, haddii caalamiyeynta dhaqaale ay kordhiso heerka saamiga ee dalalkan ayaa soo ifbaxaya. Iswaafajinta aragtida Krugman, ganacsigu wuxuu kordhiyaa wax soosaarka shirkadaha waxtarka leh iyo dhaqaalaha si kor loogu qaado. Intaa waxaa dheer sida ku xusan aragtida Porter, ganacsigu wuxuu u horseedaa faa’iido tartan iyo hagaajinta waxqabadka adag. Aragtiyadan ayaa taageeraya natiijooyinkan. Pangarkar iyo Wu (2012) waxay sahamin ku sameeyeen saamaynta ay ku yeelatay warshadaha caalamiga ah waxqabadka adag ee Shiinaha (suuq soo baxaya) intii lagu jiray 1996-2001. Natiijooyinka xogta guddiga waxay muujiyeen in heerka sare ee warshadaha caalamiyeynta ay saameyn togan ku leedahay waxqabadka shirkadda Shiinaha. Laakiin qorayaasha kooban sida Peltonen et al (2008) ayaa gaadhay natiijada ka soo horjeedda.

Waxay falanqeeyeen saameynta saameynta soo dejinta ee faa’iidada shirkadaha 15 warshad wax soo saar ee toban dal oo leh lacagta euro inta lagu gudajiray 1955-2004. Natiijooyinkooda waxay muujinayaan in tartanka soo dejinta ee dalalka soo koraya uu saameyn muuqata iyo mid xun ku leeyahay faa’iidada shirkadaha wax soo saarka ee aagaggaas. Haddii jaantuska guud ee caalamiyeynta siyaasaddu kor u kacdo ilaa boqolkiiba hal, saamiga saamiga saamigu wuxuu kordhin doonaa ilaa 6.088 boqolkiiba. Qaar ka mid ah dadka kale sida Karadagli (2012) ayaa baaray saameynta seddex cabbir (dhaqaale, bulsho, siyaasadeed) ee caalamiyeynta ee saamiga kaydka ee toddobada dal ee soo koraya ee Shiinaha, Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey, Russia iyo Mexico intii lagu jiray 1998- 2009. Waxay ku soo gabagabeeyeen. in siyaasadeynta siyaasadeed iyo bulsheed ee wadan uu saameyn togan ku yeesho saamiyada shirkadaha. Kordhinta sicirka sarrifka ee laxiriira hoos udhaca lacagta wadanku waxay keeneysaa kordhinta qiimaha badeecadaha dhexdhexaadka ah taasna waxay keenaysaa inay aad uga qaalisan tahay badeecadaha dhexdhexaadka ah ee lasoo dajiyo waxayna keenaysaa kharashyada wax soosaarka oo qiimayaashu kor u kacayaan

Sidaa darteed, boqolkiiba hal kororka sicirka sarrifka wuxuu horseedi doonaa saameyn taban illaa boqolkiiba 2.318 ee saamiga saamiyada. Kordhinta qarashka dowlada waxay keeneysaa hoos udhac miisaaniyadeed waana macquul in taasi horseedo sicir barar sii kordha iyo hoos udhaca kobaca dhaqaalaha sababo laxiriira hoos udhaca miisaaniyada sida caadiga ah dhaqaalo deynta shisheeyaha iyo kordhinta masuuliyada. Natiija ahaan, waxay ku yeelan doontaa saameyn yar oo taban illaa boqolkiiba 0.41 sicirka saamiyada. Dhibaatada dhaqaale ayaa si lama filaan ah u hagaajisay heerka saamiga ee dalalka la xusay. In kasta oo dhibaatada dhaqaale ee 2007 illaa iyo sannadihii 2012, ay saamayn taban ku yeelatay dhaqaalaha waddamada badankood, laakiin qaar ka mid ah waddamada Aasiya, gaar ahaan Hindiya, Shiinaha iyo Kuuriyada Koofureed, waxay gacan ka geysteen kobaca waxsoosaarkooda guud ee waddanka iyada oo loo marayo dhiirrigelinta baahida gudaha iyo qaadashada siyaasadaha. ka soo horjeedka wareegyada ganacsiga, oo ay ku jiraan adeegsiga dhiirigelin maaliyadeed iyo siyaasadaha ballaarinta amaahda (Safdari 2013). Natiijo ahaan, kororka waxsoosaarka guud iyo baahida gudaha waxay awoodeen inay ka gudbaan saameynta dhibaatada ee saamiga saamiga.

References

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