SAAMAYNTA CAALAMIGA KORITAANKA DHAQAALAHA

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SAAMAYNTA CAALAMIGA  KORITAANKA DHAQAALAHA

Warqadani waxay khuseysaa falanqaynta xogta gudiga si loo baaro saameynta dhaq-dhaqaaqa muddada-gaaban iyo xiriiryada isu-dheellitirka muddada-dheer ee u dhexeeya caalamiyeynta iyo kobaca waddamada ASEAN intii u dhaxeysay 1970 iyo 2008. Waxaan u kala qaybinay caalamiyeynta saddex qaybood si loo baaro saameynta ay ku leedahay kobaca dhaqaalaha. Waxaan dib u eegnay arrinta aqoonsiga go’aamiyaasha adduunka ee kobaca dhaqaalaha iyadoo la adeegsanayo tijaabooyinka lacagta lagu shubo, taas oo si buuxda u taageerta doodda ah in caalamiyeynta ay xiriir adag oo isku dhafan la leedahay kobaca dhaqaalaha. Iyadoo la adeegsanayo guddi si buuxda wax looga beddelay OLS (FMOLS), waxaan go’aansanay in dabacsanaanta kobaca dhaqaale ee la xiriirta caalamiyeynta dhaqaale ay tahay 1.48, taasoo muujineysa in caalamiyeynta dhaqaale ay saameyn muuqata ku leedahay kobaca dhaqaalaha. Si kastaba ha noqotee, natiijooyinkayagu waxay sidoo kale muujinayaan in caalamiyeynta bulshada ay saameyn taban ku leedahay kobaca dhaqaalaha, halka caalamiyeynta siyaasaddu ay leedahay saameyn taban oo aan muhiim ahayn.
Eray bixin: imtixaannada is-dhexgalka guddiga, caalamiyeynta siyaasadeed, caalamiyeynta bulshada, dhaqaalaha adduunka.

I. Hordhac
Ururka Wadamada Koonfur-bari Aasiya (ASEAN) waxaa la aasaasay 8-dii Ogosto 1967, iyadoo la saxiixay Baaqa ASEAN. Wadamada xubnaha ka ah ASEAN waxaa kamid ah Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Burma iyo Cambodia. Ujeeddooyinka ASEAN waa in la dardar-geliyo kobaca dhaqaalaha, kor loo qaado nabadda iyo xasilloonida gobolka, horumar bulsho oo hor leh, iyo horumarinta dhaqanka ee gobolka.

Haddii loo tixgeliyo inay tahay hal dhaqaale, ASEAN waxay ka mid noqon doontaa tobanka dhaqaale ee adduunka ugu sarreeya marka loo eego GDP. Sannadkii 2010, IMF waxay saadaalisay in kobaca dhaqaalaha sannadlaha ah ee shanta waddan ee xubnaha ka ah ASEAN uu gaari karo 6.4%. Iyada oo ay ku jiraan dad ka kooban 600 milyan oo qof oo dadaal badan, awoodda kobaca ee gobolka ASEAN waa mid aad u weyn, xoogagga go’aamiya kobaca dhaqaale ee noocan oo kale ahna waxay mudan yihiin in la baaro. Dalal badan oo soo koraya ayaa isku dayay inay dardar geliyaan kobaca dhaqaalahooda iyagoo raacaya siyaasadaha u janjeedha dibedda ee loogu talagalay is dhexgalka dhaqaalaha adduunka. Baadhitaanada badankood ee laxidhiidha kobaca dhaqaalaha waxay ugusoo dhawaadeen mowduucan aragtida raasamaalka jirka, raasumaalka aadanaha, kheyraadka dabiiciga, iyo aqoonta farsamada. Si kastaba ha noqotee, daraasaddeennu waxay diiradda saartay caalamiyeynta iyo saameynta ay ku leedahay kobaca dhaqaalaha. Ujeedada daraasaddan ayaa ahayd in dib loo baaro in dhaqaalaha, bulshada, iyo siyaasadeynta adduunka ay saameyn ku yeelatay kobaca dhaqaalaha gudaha ASEAN intii u dhaxeysay sanadihii 1970 iyo 2008. Dhacdada lacagta la midoobay waxay muujineysaa in xiriirka muddada dheer soconaya uu ka dhex jiro GDP-ga dhabta ah iyo bulshada, siyaasad, iyo caalamiyeyn dhaqaale. Imtixaanada lacagaha lagu kala iibsado ee caadiga ah, sida Engle and Granger (1987), Phillips and Ouliaris (1990) iyo Johansen (1991), ayaa ku guuldareystay inay tixgeliyaan macluumaadka dalalkooda. Tilmaamidani waxay hoos u dhigtay awoodda qiyaasta, halka waxqabadka muuqda ee moodellada ku saleysan waddammada shaqsiyaadka kaliya ay sidoo kale caddeeyeen wax ka yar qancin. Si looga gudbo cilladahaas, daraasaddan ayaa dib-u-eegis ku sameysay arrinta ku saabsan koboca dhaqaalaha iyo adduun-weyneynta dalalka ASEAN muddadii u dhaxeysay 1970 iyo 2008, iyadoo la adeegsanayo tijaabooyin awood-lacageed oo awood badan leh. OLS looma isticmaalin, sababtoo ah ma khusayso taxanaha aan joogtada ahayn. Si kastaba ha noqotee, waxaan qaadanay falanqaynta dib-u-celinta, taas oo lagu dabaqi karo taxanaha lacagta la sifeeyay si loo lafaguro saameynta ay ku yeelan karto kobcinta dhaqaalaha adduunka. Inta ka hartay warqaddan waxaa loo abaabulay sidan soo socota. Qaybta II waxay sharxaysaa xogta loo isticmaalay daraasaddan. Qaybta III waxay si kooban u soo bandhigaysaa nidaamka waxayna ka hadlaysaa natiijooyinka dhabta ah, Qaybta IV-na waxay dib u eegaysaa gabagabadayada.

II. Xog

Tusaha KOF ee Caalamiyeynta waxaa la soo saaray 2002 (Dreher, 2006) kadibna waa la cusbooneysiiyay waxaana si faahfaahsan ugu sharaxay Dreher et al. (2008). Tilmaamuhu wuxuu daboolayaa dhinacyada dhaqaalaha, bulshada, iyo siyaasada ee caalamiyeynta. Sida laga soo xigtay Clark (2000), Norris (2000) iyo Keohane and Nye (2000), caalamiyeynta waxaa loo maleyn karaa inay tahay geedi socod abuurista isku xirnaan iyadoo loo marayo isdhaafsiga macluumaadka, fikradaha, raasumaalka iyo badeecadaha. Xiriirintani waxay dhexgalaan dhaqaalaha, dhaqamada, tikniyoolajiyadda iyo dowladnimada, aakhirkiina waxay mugdi gelinayaan xuduudaha dhaqaale ee u dhexeeya ummadaha iyo soo saarista nidaam isku dhafan oo isku tiirsanaan ah Tilmaamaha KOF waxaa ku jira saddex cabbir, sida soo socota:
(1) Dhaqaaleynta caalamiga ah waxaa lagu cabbiri karaa iyadoo la fiirinayo socodka fog ee alaabada, raasamaalka, iyo adeegyada iyo waliba macluumaadka la socda isweydaarsiga suuqa;
(2) Caalamiyeynta siyaasadeed waxaa lagu gartaa faafinta siyaasadaha dowladda;
(3) Caalamiyeynta bulshada waxaa ka mid ah faafinta fikradaha, macluumaadka, sawirada, iyo dhaqanka.
Xogta laga soosaaray KOF Index waxay kakoobantahay indices sanadle ah oo laxiriira dhaqaalaha, siyaasada iyo caalamiyeynta wadamada ASEAN oo loogu talagalay isbeddelo gaar ah muddadii udhaxaysay 1970 ilaa 2008, oo midi tahay qiimaha uguyar. Qiimaha sare wuxuu muujinayaa heer sare oo caalamiyeyn ah. Xogta waxaa loo xisaabiyey sanadkiiba mar. Xogta GDP waxay ku saleysneyd Real 2005 GDP ($ balaayiin); heerka koritaanku wuxuu muujinayaa heerka kobaca dhaqaalaha.
III. Habka iyo Natiijooyinka Imtixaanka
A. Tijaabooyin Xidid Shaqsi iyo Guddi
Daraasadani waxay adeegsatay falanqaynta xogta gudiga si loo aqoonsado astaamaha go’aaminta ee la xiriira koboca dhaqaalaha ee heerarka qaran iyo heer gobol. Markii aan baareynay xogta taxanaha waqtiga taxanaha ah, waxaan adeegsanay tijaabooyinka xididka unugyada si aan u go’aamino in doorsoomayaasha ay ahaayeen taxane taagan. Tijaabooyinka guddi-isweydaarsiga lacagta ayaa markaa loo shaqeeyay si loo tijaabiyo xiriirka lacagta kala-gooshka ah ee u dhexeeya afar doorsoome. Ugu dambeyntiina, tijaabo guddi FMOLS ah ayaa loo shaqaaleeyay si loo qiyaaso e isku-dheellitirnaanta saddex is-beddelka lacagta lagu shubo.
Qeybtaan, waxaan marka hore hubinay jiritaanka xidid halbeeg ah GDP-ga dhabta ah, tusmooyinka dhaqaalaha, siyaasada, iyo bulshada caalamka ee wadamada ASEAN. Waxaan ka codsanay tijaabooyinka jiilka koowaad jiilka unugyada Maddala iyo Wu (1999) iyo Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), iyo sidoo kale tijaabooyinka xididka qeybta labaad ee Choi (2002) iyo Chang (2002) iyadoo la tixgelinayo iskutallaabta- ku tiirsanaanta qaybta. Natiijooyinka afartan imtixaan ee aan taagnayn waxay muujinayaan in indha-indheynta bulsho, siyaasadeed, iyo dhaqaale ee caalamiga ah ay yihiin amarkii ugu horreeyay ee isku dhafan, I (1) dhammaan waddamada ASEAN.
Jadwalka 1 wuxuu soo bandhigayaa natiijooyinka tijaabooyinka halbeegga ee cutubka, dhammaantoodna ay diidayaan diidmada mala-awaalka ah in xidid halbeeg u jiro dhammaan waxsoosaarka guud ee bulshada, siyaasadda, iyo dhaqaalaha adduunka. Marka la eego natiijooyinkaas, waxaan sii wadnay inaanu tijaabino bal in xiriir muddo dheer socday uu jiray iyadoo la adeegsanayo baaritaanka lacagta wadaagga ah.

Shaxda 1
Tijaabooyinka Xididdada Cutubka ee GDP-ga dhabta ah, Isu-duwaha Dhaqaalaha, Isku-xirnaanshaha Siyaasadeed iyo Is-dhexgalka Bulshada

Panel A. First generation panel unit root test
Level 1st difference
Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) Wt ,bar Zt ,bar Z DF
t ,bar Wt ,bar Zt ,bar Z DF
t ,bar
Real
GDP 5.516
(1.000) 5.555
(1.000) 7.890
(1.000) -2.821
(0.002) -2.815
(0.002) -4.855
(0.000)
Economic globalization 8.375
(1.000) 8.375
(1.000) 8.375
(1.000) -11.568
(0.098) -11.645
(0.000) -11.860
(0.000)
Political globalization 5.411
(1.000) 5.557
(1.000) 4.878
(1.000) -14.996
(0.000) -15.103
(0.000) -14.889
(0.000)
Social
globalization 4.221
(1.000) 4.426
(1.000) 6.604
(1.000) -10.272
(0.000) -10.375
(0.000) -12.775
(0.000)

Maddala and Wu (1999) PMW ZMW PMW ZMW
Real GDP 11.707
(0.926) -1.311
(0.905) 51.101
(0.000) 4.918
(0.000)
Economic
globalization 4.050
(1.000) -2.522
(0.994) 90.717
(0.000) 11.181
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Social globalization 7.062
(0.996) -2.046
(0.980) 73.034
(0.000) 8.385
(0.000)

Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Political globalization 4.974
(1.000) -2.376
(0.991) 92.103
(0.000) 11.401
(0.000)
Fiiro gaar ah: Qiyaasta cutubka cutubka mala-awaalka ayaa ah in taxanaha waqtiga oo dhan ay yihiin geedi socod halbeegyo ah. Tirakoobyada la midka ah ayaa ka sarreeya qawska. Qiime u dhigma wuxuu ku jiraa qawska.
B. Tijaabooyinka Isku-dhafka Wadajirka

Si loo go’aamiyo in xiriir dheelitiran oo muddo dheer socdey uu jiro, Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004) wuxuu soo saaray tijaabooyin qashin-kala-baxa ah oo leh xasaasiyad iyo xoog badnaan. Tijaabada kala-soocida lacagta kala-baxa ah ee guddiga ayaa ku saleysneyd qaab laba marxaladood ah oo ay soo jeediyeen Engle iyo Granger (1987) oo loogu talagalay waqti-taxane fudud. Daraasadani waxay qaadatay imtixaankii ay soo saartay Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004), oo ay ku jiraan afar la isku geeyay cabirkooda iyo saddex tirakoob koox-celcelis ah. Awoodda tijaabadani waxay ka sarreysaa tan tijaabooyinka lacagta wadaagga ah ee caadiga ah. Toddobada tirakoob ee ay xisaabisay Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004) waxay u qaybsan yihiin laba qaybood: (1) oo lagu soo ururiyey tirakoobka ku saleysan cabbirka, loo yaqaan tirakoobka tirakoobka, (2) tirakoobka u dhexeeya cabirka, oo loo yaqaan tirakoobka koox-celceliska . Tirakoobka waxaa loo xisaabiyaa sida soo socota:
Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004) wuxuu soojeediyey tijaabooyin koox-koox ah iyo koox koox ah, kuwaas oo tixgalin kaladuwanaansho ah iyada oo loo marayo adeegsiga xaddidaadyo gaar ah oo ku kala duwanaan kara xubnaha shakhsiga ah. Iyadoo lagu xisaabtamayo kala duwanaanshaha noocan oo kale ah waxay diidaysaa waajibaadka laga qabo in loo maleeyo in xaqiijinta lacagta shilinku ay isku mid yihiin shakhsiyaadka ku jira guddiga.
Natiijooyinka Imtixaanka Isku-dhafka Haraaga Waxaa Soo Jeediyay Pedroni (2004)
(Dhaqaale ahaan Kuwo Beddel Ah)

 

Test statistic Probability
within-group tests panel v-stat 9.125*** 0.000
panel rho-stat 1.889** 0.030
panel pp-stat 1.248 0.106
panel adf-stat –0.424 0.336
between-group tests group rho-stat 2.395*** 0.009
group pp-stat 1.413* 0.079
group adf-stat –0.089 0.465
Xusuusin: Qiyaasta null waxay tahay in doorsoomayaasha aan la shilin. Imtixaannada null-ka ah, tirakoobyada oo dhan waxaa loo qaybiyaa sidii caadiga ahayd (0,1).
*** Muuji in xuduudaha ay muhiim yihiin heerka 1%.
** Muuji in xuduudaha ay muhiim yihiin heerka 5%.
* Muuji in xuduudaha ay muhiim yihiin heerka 10%.
C. Natiijooyinka Isku-dhafka Imtixaannada Guddi

Tijaabooyinka guddi-isweydaarsiga lacagta ayaa loo isticmaalay in lagu go’aamiyo haddii ay jireen xiriirro isu dheelitiran oo muddo dheer socday oo ka dhexjiray tusmooyinka isku-dhafan ee dhaqaalaha, siyaasadda, caalamiyeynta iyo wax-soo-saarka dhabta ah ee dhabta ah ee leh cabbir taxane ah, T, iyo cabbir isweydaarsi, N. Shaxda 2 wuxuu muujinayaa natiijooyinka baaritaanka lacagta wadajirka ah. Mid ka mid ah afarta la soo ururiyey ee ku saleysan tirakoobka ku saleysan cabbirka, “panel v-stat” wuxuu muujinayaa natiijooyinka baaritaanka ee wanaagsanaa oo diiday diidmada mala-awaalka ah ee heerka 1%. “Panel rho-stat” iyo “panel pp-stat” labaduba waxay ahaayeen diidmo, laakiin kaliya “panel rho-stat” ayaa diiday mala-awaalka null, iyo “panel adf-stat” wuxuu ahaa diidmo, wuu ku guuldareystay inuu diido mala-awaalka null. Saddexda tirakoob ee udhaxeeya labada koox ee tijaabooyinka lacagta wadaagga ah (koox rho-stat, koox koox, iyo adf-stat), “group rho-stat” iyo “group pp-stat” way fiicnaayeen, halka “koox adf- stat “wuxuu ahaa diidmo. “Group pp-stat” iyo “group adf-stat” ayaa diiday mala-awaalka null, laakiin, “group adf-stat” ayaa ku guuldareystay inuu diido heerka 10%. Waxaan go’aansanay in seddex imtixaan ay ku guuldareysteen inay diidaan mala-awaalka null ee heerka muhiimadda 10%. Si kastaba ha noqotee, afar ka mid ah tirakoobka (panel v-stat, panel rho-stat, group rho-stat, and group pp-stat) waxay caddeeyeen jiritaanka cilaaqaadka lacagta. Imtixaanka lacagta wadaagga ah ee ‘Pedroni panel’, haddii guddiga ‘v-Statistic’ ee tirooyinka tirakoobka lacagta lagu shubo uu leeyahay qiime togan, oo muhiim ah, markaa wuxuu diidayaa mala-awaalka aan jirin ee ah in lacag-isweydaarsi aan la qaadin. Sidaa awgeed, sida ku cad Jadwalka 2, natiijooyinka baaritaanka baaritaanka kaladuwan ee Pedroni (2004) waxay muujineysaa in null ka mid ah lacagta shilinka ah aan la diidi karin, taasoo muujineysa isu-dheellitirnaan muddada-dheer ah oo ka mid ah calaamadaha dhaqaale, bulsho, iyo siyaasadeed ee adduunka iyo sidoo kale dhaqaalaha kororka wadamada ASEAN intii u dhaxeysay 1970 iyo 2008. Awooda ugu sareysa ee habka gudiga si loo ogaado shilalka lacagta, waxaan si adag u aaminsanahay in natiijooyinkani ay si aad ah uga kalsoon yihiin kuwa ka soo jeeda habka lacagta caadiga ah. Maaddaama natiijooyinka tijaabooyinka ay muujinayaan in ummad kasta, ay jiraan cilaaqaadyo dhex-dhexaad ah oo ka dhexeeya calaamadaha dhaqaale, bulsho iyo siyaasadeed iyo GDP dhab ah.

intaa ka dib, tijaabada gudiga FMOLS ee ay soo jeediyeen Phillips iyo Hansen (1990) ayaa loo shaqaaleeyay si loo qiyaaso qiimaha isweydaarsiga ka mid ah doorsoomayaasha. Natiijooyinka ayaa noo oggolaanaya inaan go’aamino inta ay le’eg tahay saameynta. D. Natiijooyinka Panel FMOLS Farsamaynta OLS (FMOLS) si buuxda wax looga beddelay waxay ku habboon tahay qiyaasta dulinka lacagta lagu duuduubo ee looxyada kala geddisan. OLS oo si buuxda wax looga beddelay (FMOLS) iyada oo la tixgelinayo nidaamka lacagta soo socota ee soo socota ee guddi ka kooban i = 1,…, N

Qaabka ugu yar ee wax looga beddelay laba jibbaaranaha (FMOLS) wuxuu saxi karaa eexashada endogeneity ee tusaalaha wuxuuna soo saari karaa qiyaaso iswaafajsan oo isdaba-joog ah, taasoo muujineysa saameynta muddada-dheer ee dhaqaalaha, siyaasadda, iyo caalamiyeynta bulshada ee kobaca dhaqaalaha ee waddamada ASEAN intii u dhaxeysay 1970 iyo 2008. isle’egta FMOLS tijaabada waxaa loo adeegsaday in lagu qiyaaso β isku dheelitirnaanta umadaha shaqsi ahaaneed, ka dib baaris FMOLS ah ayaa loo isticmaalay in lagu qiyaaso isugeynta guud ee β (Kooxda) umadaha oo dhan. Jadwalka 3 wuxuu muujinayaa qiimaha ‘isku dheelitirnaanta’ sida laga soo dheegtay isla’egyada iyo kooxaha isla eg ee tijaabooyinka FMOLS. Qiyamyadani waxay matalayaan shakhsiga iyo saamaynta guud ee dhaqaale, bulsho, iyo siyaasadaynta caalamiga ah ee koritaanka dhaqaalaha, taas oo ku kala duwan quruumaha ASEAN. Heerarka 1% ee ahmiyadda, dhaqaalaha iyo caalamiyeynta bulshada waxaa lagu muujiyey inay si togan oo taban u saameyn ku yeelaneyso kobaca dhaqaalaha, siday u kala horreeyaan. Jadwalka 3 wuxuu soo bandhigayaa natiijooyinka kiisaska shaqsi iyo guddi isku-dheelitiran ee Isleeg (9).
Dabacsanaanta dhaqaalaha (ECOi, t), siyaasada (POLi, t) iyo bulshada (SOCi, t) tusmooyinka caalamiga marka la eego wax soosaarka dhabta ah (GDPi, t), waxaa lagu qiyaasay iyadoo la adeegsanayo farsamada FMOLS ee looxyada kala duwan ee lacagta lagu shubo.
Qiyaasta Qiyaasta Kooxda Wadajirka ah ee Qiyaasta la Beddelay ee FMOLS (GDP-ga dhabta ah ee ku-tiirsanaanta la beddelayo)

 

Country Economic Globalization Political Globalization Social Globalization
Brunei Darussalam 13.779 –5.559 –8.244
Cambodia 0.206*** –0.018 –0.244***
Indonesia 0.030 0.002 0.022
Lao PDR –0.002 0.067 0.048
Malaysia 0.107** –0.001*** –0.039*
Myanmar 0.327 –0.046 –0.192

Xusuusin: ***, ** iyo * waxay muujinayaan muhiimadda heerarka 0.01, 0.05, iyo 0.1, siday u kala horreeyaan.
Jadwalka 3 wuxuu bixinayaa caddeyn ah in caalamiyeynta dhaqaale ay horseed u tahay koboc dhaqaale oo sareeya. Natiijooyinkaasi waxay la heshiiyeen kuwii Dreher (2006), oo xusay in isdhexgalka dhaqaale uu horseedayo koboc dhaqaale oo sareeya. Si kastaba ha noqotee, dib-u-celinta kooxeed ee natiijooyinka FOLS waxay sidoo kale tilmaamaysaa in tobanka waddan ee xubnaha ka ah ASEAN, caalamiyeynta bulshada ay saameyn aad u xun ku leedahay kobaca dhaqaalaha, halka caalamiyeynta siyaasadeed ay leedahay saameyn taban oo aan muhiim ahayn. Natiijooyinka aadka u adag ee FOLS natiijooyinka waxay muujinayaan in 1 dhibic oo kororka caalamiyeynta dhaqaalaha ay gacan ka geysato kobaca dhaqaalaha 1.48%; si kastaba ha noqotee, kororka 1 dhibic ee caalamiyeynta siyaasaddu waxay hoos u dhigeysaa kobaca dhaqaalaha 0,55% iyo 1 dhibic oo kororka ah ee caalamiyeynta bulshada waxay hoos u dhigeysaa kobaca dhaqaalaha 0.87%. Tani waxay daliil cad u tahay in caalamiyeynta dhaqaale kobciso. Dhaqaaleynta caalamiga ah waxay siisaa faa iidooyin la mid ah kuwa laga filan karo horumarka tikniyoolajiyadeed ee waaweyn. Si kastaba ha noqotee, caalamiyeynta siyaasadeed iyo bulsheed waxay saameyn taban ku leedahay kobaca dhaqaalaha iyadoo caalamiyeynta bulshada ay muujineyso saameynta weyn. Maaddaama β isuduwayaasha saddexda dhisme ay la socdaan Brunei Darussalam ay aad u sarreeyeen, waxaan tirtirnay Brunei Darussalam waxaanan ogaanay in isku-dheelitirka kooxdu uu hoos uga dhacay 1.481 illaa 0.115 dhaqaalaha adduunka, oo weli tirakoob ahaan aad u muhiim ah. Dhanka siyaasadaha adduunka, isuduwaha wuxuu ka kordhay -0.554 ilaa 0.002, taas oo aan wali tirakoob ahaan muhiim aheyn. Intaas waxaa sii dheer, isku-dheellitirka isku-xirnaanta bulshada ayaa ka kordhay -0.874 illaa -0.055, taasoo weli tirakoob ahaan aad u muhiim ahayd. Tani waxay muujineysaa in ahmiyadda ay u leedahay isu-socodka caalamiga ah, siyaasadaynta, iyo caalamiyeynta bulshada marka loo eego guud ahaan kobaca dhaqaalaha ee ASEAN inuusan ku kala duwaneyn Brunei Darussalam.

Natiijooyinka Sababta Sababtoo ah Is-beddelka Qashinka
Zhnc (Asymptotic) Ztild (Semi-
Asymptotic)
Statistic P-Value Statistic P-Value
Economic Globalization does not Granger Cause Real GDP 2.562 0.015 1.934 0.062
Real GDP does not Granger Cause Economic
Globalization 5.447 0.000 4.385 0.000.
Political Globalization does not Granger Cause Real GDP -0.142 0.395 -0.365 0.373

Baaritaankeena ku saabsan xiriirka sababaha labada geesood ah, waxaan tixgelin siinay kala-duwanaanta kala-sooc-waddan. Sidaa darteed waxaan u adeegsanay sabab la’aanta tusaalayaasha xogta noocyada kaladuwan ee ay soo jeedisay Hurlin (2008) si loo tijaabiyo cilaaqaadka sababaha. Natiijooyinku waxay tilmaamayaan oo keliya in dhaqaalaha adduunka oo dhan uu saameyn weyn ku yeesho koboca dhaqaalaha, laakiin koboca dhaqaale wuxuu saameyn weyn ku leeyahay dhaqaalaha adduunka, caalamiyeynta, iyo isku-xirnaanta bulshada isla waqtigaas. Marka, xiriirka sababa lahaanshaha ee labada dhinac ayaa jira inta udhaxeysa caalamiyeynta dhaqaalaha iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha.
IV. Gabagabo

Daraasadani waxay adeegsaneysaa tijaabooyinka lacagta wadaagga ah ee Pedroni’s (1999, 2000, 2004) si dib loogu baaro bal in xiriir soo jireen ah uu ka dhexeeyo indices caalami ahaan dhaqaale, bulsho, iyo siyaasadeed iyo kobaca dhaqaale ee wadamada ASEAN. Natiijooyinka waxay siinayaan kalsooni joogitaanka dheelitirka muddada-dheer. Si loo waafajiyo isku xirnaanta taxanaha iyo hal-abuurka, waxaan aqbalnay habka qiyaasta FMOLS si loo baaro shaqsiyadda iyo kooxda saameynta saddexda dhisme ee caalamiyeynta ee GDP-ga dhabta ah. Dib-u-celinta kooxeed ee natiijooyinka FMOLS waxay muujineysaa in tobanka waddan ee xubnaha ka ah ASEAN is-weydaarsiga dhaqaale uu saameyn togan ku leeyahay kobaca dhaqaalaha, halka bulshada iyo siyaasadaynta adduunka ay leeyihiin saameyn taban. Isu-duwidda dhaqaalaha ayaa lagu muujiyey inay ka waxtar badan tahay siyaasad ahaan ama caalamiyeynta bulshada ee wadista koritaanka dhaqaalaha. Marka loo eego waayo-aragnimada dalalka ASEAN, dawladuhu waa inay si firfircoon uga shaqeeyaan kobcinta ganacsiga caalamiga ah iyo maalgashiga shisheeye, iyagoo ku dadaalaya kordhinta ka-qaybgalka ururada dhaqaalaha iyo qaadashada siyaasadaha u janjeedha arrimaha dibadda, dhiirrigelinta is-dhexgalka dhaqaaleyaasha kale. Dowladaha sidoo kale waa inay fiiro gaar ah u yeeshaan saameynta xun ee siyaasadeynta iyo siyaasadeynta bulshada ee kobaca dhaqaalaha.
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