Xiriirka ka dhexeeya Dowladnimada iyo Kobaca Dhaqaalaha inta lagu jiro Waqtiyada Dhibaatada

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Xiriirka ka dhexeeya Dowladnimada iyo Kobaca Dhaqaalaha inta lagu jiro Waqtiyada Dhibaatada

Dhibaatada dhaqaale ee hadda jirta waxay saameyn ku yeelatay dhammaan dhinacyada nolosha, taasoo dhalisay xasillooni darro siyaasadeed, dhibaatooyin dhaqaale oo shaqsiyadeed, iyo tiro sii kordheysa oo musalafnimo ganacsi. In kasta oo kuwani ay yihiin arrimo qatar ah, si fudud u sameynta siyaasad dowladeed oo dhaqaalo ku duraysa dhaqaale maahan habab ku habboon oo lagu gaaro dib u soo kabasho dhaqaale iyo horumar dhaqaale oo muddo dheer ah mooyee haddii lagu daro nidaam maamul oo hufan oo hufan. Maqaalka xaadirka ahi wuxuu baarayaa in xiriirka adag ee u dhexeeya xukunka iyo koritaanka uu jiro xilliyada dhibaatooyinka dhaqaale ama ay yihiin oo keliya xilliyada aan dhibaatooyinka jirin. Natiijooyinka joornaalka hadda jira waxay muujinayaan in dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka ay saameyn aan la dareemi karin ku yeelatay xiriirka ka dhexeeya maamulka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha. Si kastaba ha noqotee, daraasaddan ayaa lagu ogaaday in heerarka kala duwan ee horumarka quruumaha ay saameyn ku yeelanayaan xiriirka ka dhexeeya dowladnimada iyo koritaanka siyaabo kala duwan xilliyada dhibaatooyinka. Haddaba, natiijooyinka warqadda hadda la helayo waxay muujinayaan xasillooni-darrada ka jirta xiriirka u dhexeeya maamulka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha inta lagu jiro xiisadda dhaqaale; deganaansho la’aantani waxay calaamad u tahay baahida loo qabo istiraatiijiyado muddo-dheer ah si kor loogu qaado ku dhaqanka caalamiga ah ee maamul wanaagga caalamiga ah ee aan si xun u saameyn dhibaatooyinka.
Erayada Muhiimka ah: tayada maamulka, kobaca dhaqaalaha, dhibaatada dhaqaale, horumarka aadanaha.

1. Hordhac
Dhibaatada dhaqaale ee 2008 waxay saameyn ku yeelatay dhammaan dhinacyada nolosha, taasoo dhalisay xasillooni darro siyaasadeed, dhibaatooyin dhaqaale oo shaqsiyadeed, iyo tiro sii kordheysa oo musalafnimo ganacsi. In kasta oo kuwani ay yihiin arrimo halis ah, si fudud u sameynta siyaasad dawladeed oo dhaqaale ku duraysa dhaqaale maaha hab ku habboon oo lagu kasbado dib-u-soo kabasho dhaqaale iyo horumar dhaqaale oo muddo dheer ah mooyee haddii aan lagu darin nidaam maamul oo hufan oo hufan (Albassam, 2012a; Aikins, 2009; Davidoff & Zaring, 2008; Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009). Sida laga soo xigtay Aikins (2009), “iyada oo aan lahayn siyaasad dhaqaale oo habboon iyo qaabdhismeed nidaamsan, nidaamka maaliyadeed ee ummaddu wuxuu u nuglaanayaa dhibaato wuxuuna khatar gelinayaa xasilloonida dhaqaalaha oo dhan” (bogga 39).

Kobaca dhaqaaluhu wuxuu kuxiranyahay dhaqamada dowlada iyo qaabka dowladaha u maamulaan si toos ah iyo si dadbanba (Adams & Mengistu, 2008; Ndulu & O’Connell, 1999; Pradhan & Sanyal, 2011). Intaas waxaa sii dheer, howlaha maamulka waxaa saameeya dhibaatooyinka dhaqaale (Furubotn & Richter, 2005; Smith, 2007). Muddo tobanaan sano ah, ururrada caalamiga ah (IOs) sida Sanduuqa Lacagta Adduunka (IMF), Qaramada Midoobay, iyo Bangiga Adduunka waxay ku doodayeen in maamul wanaaga uu yahay mid lagu gaaro himilooyin sida koboca dhaqaalaha iyo horumarka aadanaha (Kaufmann & Kraay, 2002; Mehanna , Yazbeck, & Sarieddine, 2010; Qaramada Midoobay, 2000). Aqoonyahanada iyo cilmi baarayaashu waxay isku raaceen inuu jiro xiriir adag oo udhaxeeya xukunka kobcinta dhaqaalaha, hadana waa dood in dhaqamada maamul wanaaga ay horseed u noqdaan koror dhaqaale hadii dhaqaalahu uu horseed u noqdo maamul wanaaga (Acemoglu, Johnson, & Robinson, 2001; Arndt & Oman, 2006; Dixit, 2009) ; Kaufman, Kraay, & Mastruzzi, 2009b; Smith, 2007). Dadaallo badan oo cilmi baaris ah ayaa looga hadlay sababaha suurtagalka ah ee dhibaatada hadda jirta, oo ay ka mid tahay la’aanta xeerar maxalli ah oo lagu abaabulo suuqyada maaliyadeed (Bernanke, 2009; Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009), fashilka dowladda (Albassam, 2012b; Davidoff & Zaring, 2008; Gruenewald, 2010), iyo ku guuldareysiga ururada caalamiga ah inay wax ka qabtaan abaabulka suuqa adduunka (Cerra & Saxena, 2008; Langmore & Fitzgerald, 2010; Repucci, 2011). Si kastaba ha noqotee, cilmi baaris ku saabsan saameynta dhibaatada dhaqaale ee hadda jirta ee qaabeynta xiriirka ka dhexeeya xukunka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha ayaa si aad ah u maqan. Ka sokow buuxinta farqiga ay sababtay yaraanta cilmi-baarista ku saabsan mowduuca, sameynta faham cad oo ku saabsan saameynta dhibaatadii dhaqaale ee 2008 ee xiriirka u dhexeeya maamulka iyo kobaca waxay yeelan doontaa saameyn muhiim ah labadaba geeddi-socodka siyaasadeed iyo kan go’aan qaadashada ee maxalliga ah iyo kan caalamiga ah.

Guud ahaan, dowladaha ayaa sida caadiga ah uga jawaab celiya dhibaatooyinka dhibaatooyinka qorshayaasha muddada gaaban, ee sababi kara soo kabashada dhaqaalaha muddada-dheer ee waxyeellada leh (Davidoff & Zaring, 2008; Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009). Intaa waxaa dheer, Davidoff iyo Zaring (2008) waxay ku doodeen in dowladuhu ay xoogga saaraan kobaca dhaqaalaha marka loo eego horumarinta maamulka xilliga dhibaatooyinka dhaqaale. Sidaa darteed, haddii la fahmo saameynta dhibaatooyinka dhaqaale ee xiriirka u dhexeeya maamulka iyo koritaanka, dowladaha waxaa lagu dhiirigelin karaa inay qaataan xeelado kor u qaadaya tayada dowladnimada iyo koboca dhaqaalaha ee mustaqbalka fog iyadoo aan loo hureynin hab-dhaqanka wanaagsan ee dowlad-wanaagga muddada gaaban. Sidaa awgeed, barashada kobaca dhaqaalaha iyo xiriirka ay la leedahay nidaamka maamulka ayaa gacan ka geysan doonta sharraxaadda waxyaabaha saameynaya inta lagu jiro xilliyada dhibaatada iyo siyaabaha lagu horumarin karo. Muddo tobanaan sano ah, ururrada caalamiga ah (IOs) sida Qaramada Midoobay, IMF, iyo Bangiga Adduunka, waxay taageereen hab-dhaqanka dowlad-wanaagga oo ah habka horumarka aadanaha iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha (Mimicopoulos et al., 2007; Santiso, 2001; Qaramada Midoobay) , 2007). Si kastaba ha noqotee, inta lagu jiro dhibaatooyinka, waddamada badankood waxay ku hooseeyaan tilmaamayaasha dowladnimada maxaa yeelay dowladahoodu waxay xoogga saaraan in badan
koritaanka dhaqaalaha marka loo eego qaadashada iyo hagaajinta dhaqanka maamul wanaaga (Davidoff & Zaring, 2008; Kaufman et al., 2009 & 2010; Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009). Sidaa darteed, fahamka doorka dhibaatooyinka dhaqaale ay ka ciyaaraan qaabeynta xiriirka ka dhexeeya dowladnimada iyo kobaca inta lagu jiro dhibaatooyinka waxay ku dhiirrigelineysaa IOs inay qaataan istiraatiijiyado muddada-dheer ah oo lagu dhiirrigelinayo hab-dhaqanka dowlad-wanaagga adduunka ee aan sida xun u saameyn dhibaatooyinka. Intaas waxaa sii dheer, horumarka aadanaha waxaa lala xiriiriyay tayada maamulka (Alkire, 2010; Grindle, 2007; Pradhan & Sanyal, 2011; Sagar & Najam, 1998), kobaca dhaqaalaha (Adams & Mengistu, 2008; Ndulu & O’Connell, 1999; Smith, 2007), iyo horumar waara (Alkire, 2010; Ndulu & O’Connell, 1999; Sagar & Najam, 1998). Sida laga soo xigtay Pradhanand Sanyal (2011), “arrinta maamul wanaagga iyo saamaynta ay ku leedahay horumarka ayaa ah wadnaha dhammaan doodaha siyaasadeed ee ka dhex socda siyaasad dejiyeyaasha iyo cilmibaarayaasha” (bogga 3). Sida laga soo xigtay Alkire (2010), cilaaqaadka isdhaafsiga ayaa ka dhex jira maamul wanaaga, kobaca dhaqaalaha, iyo horumarka aadanaha. Alkire (2010) wuxuu ku soo gabagabeeyey in horumarka aadanaha (tusaalooyinka ay ka mid yihiin waxbarasho tayo sare leh iyo nidaam caafimaad) ay taageerto wax soo saarka dhaqaalaha iyada oo la siinayo shaqsiyaad caafimaad qaba oo aad u tababaran. Si taas loo gaaro, horumarka bani’aadamku wuxuu u baahan yahay koboc dhaqaale iyo ku-dhaqanka dowlad-wanaagga labadaba (Alkire, 2010). Haddaba, maqaalka hadda jiraa wuxuu ka hadlayaa nooca xiriirka ka dhexeeya horumarka aadanaha, dowlad wanaagga, iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha xilliyada dhibaatooyinka. Si loo barto saameynta heerka horumarka ummad ee xiriirka ka dhexeeya dowladnimada iyo koritaanka inta lagu jiro xilliyada dhibaatooyinka, tusmada horumarka aadanaha (HDI) – oo ah wax soo saar ka tirsan Barnaamijka Horumarinta ee Qaramada Midoobay – ayaa loo isticmaalay warqadda hadda jirta.
Waqooyiga (1990) wuxuu sharraxay in qaabdhismeedka hay’adeed iyo naqshadeynta ay saameyn ku yeeshaan natiijooyinka dhaqaale iyo siyaasadeed. Intaas waxaa sii dheer, horumarka aadanaha wuxuu saameyn ku leeyahay kobaca dhaqaalaha iyo qaabka dowladaha u maamulaan (Albassam, 2012a; Provan & Kenis, 2007; Smith, 2007). Sidaa darteed, falanqaynta saameynta heerka horumarka ummad gaar ah ee qaabeynta xiriirka ka dhexeeya kobaca dhaqaalaha iyo dowladnimada, kahor iyo kadib bilawgii dhibaatada dhaqaale, waxay gacan ka geysan doontaa fahamka xiriirka ka dhexeeya horumarka hay’adeed iyo aadanaha ee dhinac iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha. dhinaca kale, gaar ahaan xilliyada dhibaatooyinka dhaqaale.
Maqaalkan waxaa loo abaabulay sidan soo socota. Kobcinta dhaqaalaha iyo tayada fikradaha maamulka ayaa laga wada hadlayaa marka hore, waxaana ku xigta baaritaanka waqtiga dhibaatada dhaqaale. Habka loo adeegsado in lagu tijaabiyo xiriirka ka dhexeeya tayada maamulka iyo koritaanka ayaa markaa la sharaxi doonaa iyadoo lagu darayo ka hadalka natiijada falanqaynta. Qeybta ugu dambeysa waxay ka hadlaysaa natiijooyinka maqaalka hadda jira waxayna soo bandhigaysaa talooyin ku saabsan cilmi baaris dheeraad ah.

2. Kobaca Dhaqaalaha

In kasta oo qeexitaan caalami ah oo la isku raacsan yahay oo ku saabsan horumarka dhaqaalaha uusan jirin, haddana waxa ka dhexeeya cilmi-baarayaasha ayaa soo ifbaxaya in horumarka dhaqaale uu ka dhasho nolol wanaagsan oo dadka ayna lagama maarmaan u tahay dhaqaale qaran oo muddo dheer soconaya. Horumarka dhaqaale wuxuu tilmaamayaa hagaajinta caafimaadka dadka, waxbarashada, iyo ladnaanta guud iyo jiritaanka tilmaamayaal dhaqaale oo wanaagsan, sida koboca dhaqaalaha iyo heerka shaqo la’aanta oo hooseysa (Adams & Mengistu, 2008; Aidt, 2009; Arndt, 1987). Horumarka waara waa arin kale oo laxiriira horumarka dhaqaalaha maxaa yeelay, iyada oo aan la helin koboc dhaqaale oo waqti dheer soconaya, dhaqaaluhu wuxuu halis ugu jiraa inuu burburo inta lagu jiro xiisad dhaqaale ama mid siyaasadeed (Blair & Carroll, 2008; Mayer-Foulkes, 2009; Nafziger, 2006; Ndulu & O’Connell, 1999). Horumarinta dhaqaalaha waa muhiim maxaa yeelay waxay saameyn ku leedahay nolosha dadka (Adams & Mengistu, 2008; Chong & Calderon, 2000; Kaufmann & Kraay, 2002; Smith, 2007). Horumarinta dhaqaalaha, dadku waxay heli doonaan waxbarasho wanaagsan iyo daryeel caafimaad waxayna noqon doonaan kuwa wax soo saar badan (Agere, 2000; Mimicopoulos et al., 2007). Horumarka dhaqaale wuxuu kaloo saameeyaa heerarka dambiyada iyo xasilloonida siyaasadeed (Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, & Limongi, 2000) maadaama ummadaha horumarsan ay u muuqdaan inay leeyihiin heerar dambiyada oo ka hooseeya iyo xasilloonida siyaasadeed ee ka saraysa wadamada aan horumarsanayn (Abdellatif, 2003; Adams & Mengistu, 2008; Kaufmann & Kraay, 2002). Sidaa awgeed, kobaca dhaqaale wuxuu khuseeyaa dhammaan ummadaha isku dayaya inay kordhiyaan wax soo saarkooda qofkiiba si loo kordhiyo wanaagga muwaadiniintooda (Adams & Mengistu, 2008; Mankiw, 2009; UNDP, 2010) In kasta oo aqoonyahannadu sii wadaan doodaha haddii ay tahay cawaaqib ka timaadda horumarka aadanaha ama shuruud u ah horumarka aadanaha, kobaca dhaqaalaha waxaa loo tixgeliyaa inuu yahay qayb muhiim ah oo ka mid ah horumarka dhaqaalaha iyo aadanaha. Smith (2007) wuxuu ogaaday in horumarka aadanaha iyo horumarka dhaqaale midba midka kale u baahan yahay; sida oo kale, waddamadu iskuma fiirsan karaan midkoodna kan kale way iska indho-tiri karaan. Sida laga soo xigtay Smith (2007), “dhab ahaantii waxaa jira wareeg wanaagsan oo ah horumarka aadanaha iyo horumarka dhaqaalaha, mid walbana wuxuu kobcinayaa kan kale” (bogga 14). Intaa waxaa dheer, Barnaamijka Horumarinta ee Qaramada Midoobay (UNDP) wuxuu muujiyey in kobaca dhaqaalaha, waxbarashada, iyo caafimaadka ay yihiin qeybaha ugu muhiimsan ee horumarka aadanaha, iyadoo qeyb walba ay ku tiirsan tahay kuwa kale. Marka loo eego UNDP (2000), “ilaha laga soo saaray kobaca dhaqaalaha waxay maalgeliyeen horumarka aadanaha waxayna abuureen shaqo halka horumarka dadku ay gacan ka geysteen koboca dhaqaalaha” (bogga 7).

Kobaca dhaqaalaha waa kororka wax soo saarka guud ee gudaha (GDP) ama cabbirada kale ee dakhliga guud. Sida laga soo xigtay Bangiga Adduunka (2004), kobaca dhaqaale waa “isbeddel tiro ama ballaadhin xagga dhaqaalaha waddan ah” (far. 10). Intaa waxaa dheer, Bangiga Adduunka (2004) wuxuu ku dooday “koboca dhaqaalaha Caadi ahaan waxaa lagu cabiraa boqolkiiba kororka wax soo saarka gudaha (GDP) ama waxsoosaarka guud ee qaranka (GNP) inta lagu gudajiray hal sano “(par. 10). Ka dib markii aan qirey jiritaanka xiriirka ka dhexeeya kobaca dhaqaalaha iyo horumarka aadanaha, Warbixinnada Horumarinta Aadanaha (HDRs, 2010) waxay tilmaameen in jihada xiriirka uusan ahayn mid si cad loo jaray. Sida laga soo xigtay HDRs (2010), “xitaa haddii uu jiro xiriir sababi ah, jihada lama yaqaan: dakhliga badan wuxuu hagaajin karaa tayada nolosha, ama horumarinta caafimaadka iyo waxbarashadu waxay bulshada ka dhigi kartaa mid wax soo saar badan leh” (bogga 48). Intaas waxaa sii dheer, qaybinta dakhliga ee muwaadiniinta iyo tayada badeecadaha iyo adeegyada la soo saaray labaduba waxay muhiim u yihiin ummad kasta sida kordhinta heerarka dakhliga. Sida laga soo xigtay Petrovskiy (2009), “marka laga eego aragtida horumarka aadanaha, tayada kobaca dhaqaalaha ayaa muhiim u ah sida ay u tiro badan tahay” (bogga 134). Intaas waxaa sii dheer, kororka dhaqaalaha wuxuu xiriir la leeyahay hagaajinta maamulka (Albassam, 2012a; Furubotn & Richter, 2005; Kaufman & Kraay, 2008; Mantzavinos, 2001). Kaufmann iyo Kraay (2002) waxay ku doodeen in tayada dawladnimo iyo koboca dhaqaalaha ay si togan isugu xidhan yihiin. Markii ay qiimeynayeen tilmaamayaasha dowladnimo ee adduunka (WGI) laga soo bilaabo 1996 ilaa 2002, waxay ogaadeen in “dakhliga qofkiiba soo galo iyo tayada maamulka ay si xoog leh ugu tiirsan yihiin waddamada oo dhan” (bogga 1).

Iyadoo la raacayo, xiriirka ka dhexeeya kobaca dhaqaalaha iyo tayada maamulka wuxuu saameyn ku yeelanayaa kaalmada caalamiga ee laga helo wadamada sida Mareykanka iyo UK iyo ururada caalamiga ah sida Bangiga Adduunka iyo IMF. Sida laga soo xigtay Mehanna et al. (2010), “arrinta sababi la’aanta u dhexeysa maamulka iyo horumarka dhaqaalaha waa mid muhiim ah oo saameyn badan ku leh dhinaca hay’adda caalamiga; xalinta arintaan waxay ka caawinaysaa ururada caalamiga ah xulashooyinka udhaxeeya mudnaanta mudnaanta horumarka ama siyaasadaha hay’adaha ”(p. 123) .Sidaa darteed, awooda iyo jihada xiriirka udhaxeeya kobaca dhaqaalaha iyo dowladnimada waxay ahaan jirtay welina ay sii ahaan doontaa mawduuca la isku mari la’yahay. ka mid ah kuwa siyaasada dejiya iyo kuwa tacliinta ku jira (Acemoglu et al., 2001; Alkire, 2010).

3. Maamulka
Fikradda dowladnimada waxaa looga hadlay cilmiga siyaasadda iyo baaritaanka maamulka dowladda muddo tobanaan sano ah. Dowladnimada waxaa loo soo bandhigay inay bedel u tahay hababka soo jireenka ah ee xukunka (Kettl, 2002; Rhodes, 1997). Qaabka dhaqameed ee xukunka, dowladdu waxay ku leedahay gacanta sare howlaha go’aan qaadashada (Hysing, 2009; Peters & Pierre, 1998); taa bedelkeeda, maamul ahaan, ciyaartoy kale oo ay saameeyeen go’aamada dowladda (tusaale, bulshada rayidka ah iyo waaxda gaarka loo leeyahay) ayaa ka qeybqaata howlaha go’aan qaadashada (Kettl, 2002; Newman, 2001; Osborne & Gaebler, 1992; Rhodes, 1997). In kastoo maya

is afgarad ayaa jira marka la eego qeexida maamulka, mowduuc guud oo ay wadaagaan aqoonyahanada ayaa ah in dowladnimadu ay ka dhigan tahay kaqeyb gal badan hanaanka siyaasadeed iyo go’aan qaadashada ee hay’adaha aan dowliga aheyn (Agere, 2000; de Ferranti, Jacinto, Ody, & Ramshaw, 2009; Lovan, Shaffer, & Murray, 2004). Sidaa darteed, inta lagu jiro xukunka, dowladdu waa mid ka mid ah dhowr ciyaartoy-halkii ay ka ahaan lahayd ciyaaryahanka kaliya ee maareeya arrimaha ummada (Frahm & Martin, 2009; Kettl, 2002; Lovan et al., 2004; Rhodes, 1997).
Sida laga soo xigtay de Ferranti et al. (2009), “maamulku wuxuu sharxayaa qaabka guud ee saraakiisha iyo hay’adaha dowliga ah ay ku helaan uguna dhaqmaan awooddooda qaabeynta siyaasada guud iyo bixinta alaabada iyo adeegyada bulshada” (p. 8) .Dowladda “waxay meteleysa tayada guud ee xiriirka ka dhexeeya muwaadiniinta iyo dawladda, oo ay ku jiraan waxqabadka, hufnaanta, daacadnimada, iyo tayada “(bogga 8). Sidoo kale, Qaramada Midoobay waxay qeexday dowladnimada inay tahay “geedi socodka go’aan qaadashada iyo habka loo fuliyo go’aamada” (ama aan la fulinin) “(Guddiga Dhaqaalaha iyo Bulshada ee Qaramada Midoobay ee Aasiya iyo Baasifiga [UNESCAP], 2009, p. 1 ).
Qaramada Midoobay waxay sidoo kale soo bandhigtay astaamaha dhaqanka wanaagsan ee dowlad wanaaga oo ah halbeeg caalami ah oo ay qaataan dawladaha gargaarka ka hela. Sida laga soo xigtay Qaramada Midoobay, “dowlad wanaaggu wuxuu leeyahay 8 astaamood oo waaweyn; waa mid laga wada qaybqaato, la isla oggol yahay, lala xisaabtami karo, hufan, wax ka qabta, wax ku ool ah oo hufan, loo siman yahay oo loo dhan yahay, wuxuuna raacayaa sharciga “(UNESCAP, 2009, p. 1). Shuruudahaan waxaa inta badan adeegsada IOs iyo umadaha qaata si ay u qiimeeyaan sida dowladahoodu ugu gaarayaan maamul wanaag (Mimicopoulos et al., 2007). Intaa waxaa sii dheer, IOs waxay ku doodeen in maamul wanaaga uu si togan u saameeyo tayada shaqada dowlada, qaabka adeegyada loo siiyo muwaadiniintooda, iyo sida loo fuliyo barnaamijyada (Agere, 2002; Mimicopoulos et al., 2007).
Maaddaama deeq bixiyeyaasha caalamiga ah (ha ahaadeen waddammo ama ururro caalami ah sida IMF iyo Bangiga Adduunka) ay raadinayaan sida ugu wanaagsan ee gargaarka looga faa’iideysto si loo gaaro horumar dhaqaale ee dalalka qaabilaya, deeq-bixiyeyaashani waxay adeegsadaan astaamaha dowlad-wanaagga ee ay soo bandhigeen IO si ay u qiimeeyaan waxqabadka soo dhaweynta dowladaha. In kasta oo aqoonyahannada iyo siyaasiyiintu ay ka doodeen wax ku oolnimada adeegsiga astaamaha maamul-wanaagga ee ay soo bandhigeen IOs si ay u cabbiraan tayada maamulka (Farazmand, 2002; Poluha & Rosendahl, 2002), astaamaha dowlad-wanaagga ayaa shaki la’aan ka kasbaday sumcadda IOs iyo siyaasiyiinta sidoo kale – ugu xusid mudan – cilmi baarista tacliinta (Albassam, 2012a; Arndt & Oman, 2006). Intaas waxaa sii dheer, xaalado badan, astaamahan ayaa door weyn ka ciyaara ansixinta amaahda ama gargaarka tooska ah ee deeq bixiyaasha caalamiga ah ee wadamada u baahan (Mimicopoulos et al., 2007; Santiso, 2001).

4. Dhibaato Dhaqaale

Dhibaatada dhaqaale ee dabayaaqadii 2000s waxay sababtay in dalal badan ay la soo gudboonaato dhibaato siyaasadeed iyo mid dhaqaale taasoo ka dhalatay kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha ee liita ee heer caalami iyo heer degmo intaba. Maqnaanshaha qawaaniinta lagu abaabulayo suuqyada maaliyadeed (Bernanke, 2009; Davidoff & Zaring, 2008; Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009) iyo la’aanta koritaan dhaqaale oo sii waaraya oo laga yaabo inay yareeyaan saameynta dhibaatada (Acha, 2011; Agarwal, 2009; Aikins, 2009; Mayer-Foulkes, 2009) waa sababaha ugu waawayn ee ka qayb qaata daciifnimada iyo xasillooni darrada dhaqaalaha qaranka iyo adduunkaba, taas oo keentay u nuglaanta dhaqaalaha maxalliga ah ee wajahaya dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka (Albassam, 2012b; Baily & Elliot, 2009 ; Bernanke, 2009; Simkovic, 2011). Ereyga qalalaase dhaqaale waxaa loola jeedaa hoos udhac guud ee dhaqdhaqaaqa dhaqaalaha oo lagu muujiyey hoos udhaca GDP, qalajinta lacagta, iyo heerka shaqo la’aanta oo aad u sareysa (Begget al., 2009; Gressani & Kouame, 2009; Sirimanne, 2009). Adduunweynaha, dhibaatada dhaqaale waxay keentaa hoos u dhac ku yimaada ganacsiga iyo maalgashiga caalamiga ah (Claessens & Kose, 2009; National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER], 2012). Intaas waxaa sii dheer, xiisad dhaqaale ayaa laga yaabaa inay u horseedo hoos u dhac dhaqaale, taas oo ahayd kiiska dalal badankood dhowrkii sano ee la soo dhaafay. Sida laga soo xigtay NBER (2003), laba rubuc oo isku xigta oo ah koboc dhaqaale oo xun ayaa ka dhigan in dhaqaale uu ku jiro hoos u dhac dhaqaale. Waqti ayey qaadataa dhaqaalaha si ay uga soo kabtaan saamaynta muddada fog ee hoos u dhaca dhaqaale (Aikins, 2009; Cerra & Saxena, 2008; Langmore & Fitzgerald, 2010) .Warbixinno badan oo ka socda ururada caalamiga ah, hay’adaha madaxa bannaan, iyo mas’uuliyiinta dalka ayaa ka wada hadlay dhibaatada dhaqaale iyo soo jeediyay waqtiyada soo kabashada. In kasta oo saameynta dhibaatada dhaqaale ay ku kala duwan tahay waddamada (tusaale ahaan, qaar ka mid ah dalalka dhoofinta saliidda ayaan la kulmin xiisadda dhaqaale ee la mid ah tan dalalka kale), haddana waxaa hubaal ah in ku dhowaad dhammaan waddammada ay dareemeen saameynta dhibaatada mid ka mid ah jid ama mid kale (Gressani & Kouame, 2009; Sirimanne, 2009; Shirka Qaramada Midoobay ee Ganacsiga iyo Horumarinta [UNCTD], 2009).
In kasta oo uusan jirin taariikh rasmi ah oo goorta ay xiisadda dhaqaale bilaabatay, sidoo kale ma jirto taariikh sax ah oo la sheegayo in dhibaatada dhaqaale ay ahayd dhibaato caalami ah, saraakiisha dalal badan (sida, Ireland, Denmark, iyo Estonia) ayaa ku dhawaaqay in dhaqaalahoodu soo galay. xilli hoos u dhac dhaqaale 2008 (Statistics Denmark, 2009; Statistics Estonia, 2012). Intaa waxaa dheer, warbixinnada sanadlaha ah ee dhaqaalaha ee sanadkii 2009 ee labada dal iyo ururrada caalamiga ahba waxay muujiyeen hoos u dhac ku yimid wax soo saarka adduunka iyo kan waddaniga ah sanadkii 2008, dhaqdhaqaaqyada ganacsiga caalamiga ah sida maalgashiga tooska ah ee shisheeyaha (FDI), iyo dhoofinta iyo soo dejinta dalalka u dhexeeya (UNCTD, 2009). Intaas waxaa sii dheer, codsiyo tiro badan oo ku saabsan kaalmada maaliyadeed ee ka imanaya waddamada ay dhibaatadu ka soo gaadhay dhibaatada dhaqaale ayaa la sameeyay sannadihii 2008 iyo wixii ka sii dambeeyayba IMF, Bangiga Adduunka, iyo dhaqaale xoog leh sida Shiinaha (IMF, 2010; World Bank, 2012a).

Ugu dambeyntiina, sanadkii 2008, dalal badan ayaa qaaday tallaabooyin dhaqaale iyo kuwo siyaasadeed oo ay uga jawaabayaan dhibaatada, sida Xeerka Degganaanshaha Dhaqaalaha Degdegga ah ee 2008 ee Mareykanka, Qorshaha adkeysi dhaqaale (ERP) ee 2008 ee Filibiin, iyo abuuritaanka hay’ado sida Wakaaladda Maareynta Hantida Qaranka ee Ireland (Baily & Elliot, 2009; Simkovic, 2011; Yap et al., 2009). Sidaa darteed, 2008 waxaa lagu tilmaamey inuu yahay bilowga dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka waxaana sidoo kale loo isticmaali doonaa ujeeddooyinka waraaqda hadda jirta.
In kasta oo 2008 loo isticmaalay in lagu calaamadeeyo bilowga dhibaatada, haddana waxaa muhiim ah in la fahmo in dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka aysan ku soo bixin hal sano; halkii, waxay ka dhalatay dhacdooyin taxane ah oo hore, sida xumbada guryaha ee 2006 iyo 2007 (Bernanke, 2009; Davidoff & Zaring, 2008; Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009). Intaa waxaa sii dheer, in kasta oo dhibaatada dhaqaale ay noqotay arrin caalami ah sanadkii 2008, haddana saameynteeda waxaa loo dareemay si ka duwan ummadaha kala duwan. Wadamada qaarkood, sida Ireland, Griiga, iyo Spain, waxay la kulmeen qalalaase dhaqaale iyo mid siyaasadeed oo baaxad leh kadib markii xiisadu bilaabatay halka kuwa kale, sida wadamada saliida qaniga ku ah iyo Shiinaha, ay dareemeen cawaaqib xumada dhibaatada iyadoo loo marayo koboc dhaqaale oo gaabis ah (Gressani & Kouame, 2009; Sirimanne , 2009).
5. Qiyaasaha iyo Habka Cilmi-baarista

Maqaalka hadda wuxuu ku saleysnaa ilo lagu kalsoonaan karo oo la isku halleyn karo oo xog ah oo cabiraya tayada maamulka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha (Arndt & Oman, 2006; Mimicopoulos et al., 2007). Daraasado badan, siyaasad dejiyeyaal, iyo IOs waxay isticmaaleen ilo isku mid ah si ay u cabiraan doorsoomayaashaan (Albassam, 2012a & 2012b; Arndt & Oman, 2006; Kaufmann & Kraay, 2002; Mehanna et al., 2010). Nidaamka falanqaynta xogta wuxuu noqon doonaa hanaan sahamin iyadoo la adeegsanayo xogta ‘GDP’ ee dalalka, dhibcaha WGI, iyo dhibcaha HDI. Intaa waxaa dheer, daraasaddan waxaa ku jira xog sare oo laga soo ururiyey tilmaamayaasha maamulka adduunka, Bangiga Adduunka, iyo UNDP. Qaab dhismeedka tusaalaha ah ee lagu darayo daraasaddan waxaa ka mid ah dhammaan xubnaha Qaramada Midoobay oo ay ka warbixinayaan tilmaamayaasha dowladnimo ee adduunka oo dhan (oo ah cabirka dowladnimada) waxayna leeyihiin GDP (oo ah cabbirka kobaca dhaqaalaha) xogta laga heli karo 2006 ilaa 2011. , GDP qofkiiba marka la eego awoodda wax iibsiga (PPP) ee dollarka caalamiga ah ee hadda jira waxaa loo isticmaalaa in lagu cabbiro kobaca dhaqaalaha. GDP qofkiiba waxaa loo xisaabiyaa iyadoo loo qaybinayo waxsoosaarka waddan ee wadarta guud ee dadka (Constanza et al., 2009; Shostak, 2001; Vachris & Thomas, 1999), halka PPP lagu xisaabinayo iyadoo lagu saleynayo heerka waddamada ee qiimaha dambiilaha go’an iyo adeegyada. . PPP waxay isticmaashaa sicirka sarrifka suuqa iyo dambiil alaab iyo adeegyo ah oo ka socda waddammada oo dhan iyadoo saldhig u ah isbarbardhigga waddamada (Ignatiuk, 2009; Vachris & Thomas, 19990). Intaas waxaa sii dheer, warqadani waxay isticmaashaa PPP maxaa yeelay waxay qiraysaa kororka dadka iyo qiimaha nolosha wadan kasta (Ignatiuk, 2009; Nguyen, 2005; Vachris & Thomas, 1999).

Sida laga soo xigtay Wong iyo Autio (2005), “GDP per capita waa cabirka ugu badan ee la isticmaalo ee kobaca dhaqaalaha” (p. 346, note). Daraasado badan ayaa isticmaalay GDP qofkiiba oo lagu hagaajiyay PPP iyada oo lagu cabirayo kobaca dhaqaalaha (Adam, 2003; Albassam; 2012a; Calderón & Liu, 2002; De Long & Summers, 1991; Harttgen, 2012; Islam, 1998; Kentor, 1998; Wong & Autio, 2005; van den Bergh, 2009). Marka la raaco qaabka daraasaddan, GDP qofkiiba oo lagu hagaajiyo PPP waxaa loo isticmaalaa warqadda hadda jirta oo ah cabbirka kobaca dhaqaalaha. Ujeeddooyinka waraaqda hadda jirta, lix tilmaam maamul ayaa loo adeegsadaa in lagu cabbiro tayada dowladnimada: codka iyo la xisaabtanka, xasilloonida siyaasadeed iyo maqnaanshaha rabshadaha, tayada sharciyeynta, ku dhaqanka sharciga, waxtarka dowladda, iyo xakamaynta musuqmaasuqa (Kaufman et al. , 2009). Warqadda hadda jirta waxay qaadatay WGI inay tahay cabirka tayada dowladnimada maxaa yeelay waxay cabirtaa waxtarka iyo waxtarka shaqada dowladda (iyadoo la adeegsanayo xukunka sharciga, tayada sharciyeynta, iyo tilmaamayaasha wax ku oolka ah ee dowladda) iyo sidoo kale xaddiga ay dowladuhu la dagaallamaan musuqmaasuqa ayna ku dhiirrigeliyaan muwaadiniinta kaqeybgal geedi socodka siyaasada (adoo adeegsanaya xakameynta musuqmaasuqa, xasiloonida siyaasadeed iyo maqnaanshaha rabshadaha / argagixisada, iyo tilmaamayaasha codka iyo la xisaabtanka) (Kaufmann et al., 2010).

Lixda WGIs waxaa adeegsaday Kaufmann et al. (2010) si loo cabiro tayada maamulka. Siyaasad-dejiyeyaasha, IOs, iyo aqoonyahanno aqoonyahanno ah ayaa sidoo kale u adeegsaday WGI qiimeynta arrimaha waddammada iyo go’aaminta illaa iyo inta dowladdu ay ku dabaqeyso astaamaha dowlad-wanaagga, sida ka-qaybgalka bulshada ee geeddi-socodka siyaasadeed ama la dagaallanka musuqmaasuqa (Arndt & Oman, 2006; Langbein & Knack, 2010; Thomas, 2008). WGIs waxaa sanad walba daabacda Kooxda Bangiga Adduunka. Daabacaaddii ugu horreysay ee WGI, oo la daabacay 1996, waxay kahadashay 186 dal; cadadkii la daabacay 2011 wuxuu daboolay dhaqaalaha 215 dal iyo dhulal. Heerka saameynta dhibaatada dhaqaale ee hadda jirta ee ku saabsan qaabeynta xiriirka ka dhexeeya kobaca dhaqaalaha iyo dowladnimada ayaa la filayaa inay ku kala duwanaanto tilmaame illaa mid kale. Haysashada lix tilmaamood oo diiradda saaraya dhinacyada kala duwan ee geeddi-socodka dowladnimada, halkii laga yeelan lahaa hal isugeyn guud ee maamulka, waxay awood u siineysaa go’aan-qaadayaasha iyo cilmi-baarayaashu inay fahmaan xiriirka ka dhexeeya dhinac kasta oo ka mid ah hannaanka maamulka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha inta lagu jiro xilliyada dhibaatooyinka. Intaas waxaa sii dheer, go’aan qaadayaasha waxay horumarin karaan faham cad oo ku saabsan doorka tilmaame kastaa uu ka ciyaaro kobcinta dhaqaalaha inta lagu jiro xilliyada dhibaatooyinka. Marka lagu daro barashada xiriirka ka dhexeeya xukunka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha, warqadani waxay baareysaa in xiriirka noocan oo kale ah uu la mid yahay ummadaha oo dhan xilliyada dhibaatooyinka. Warqadda hadda jirta waxay lahadashay afar koox oo dalal ah iyadoo lagu saleynayo heerkooda horumarineed ee aadanaha, iyadoo la adeegsanayo Qaramada Midoobay ’HDI. Afartan koox ayaa loo kala saaray qaybaha soo socda: horumar aad u sarreeya, horumar sare, horumar dhexdhexaad ah, iyo horumar hoose (UNDP, 2010). Qaramada Midoobay waxay isticmaashaa HDI si ay u cabiraan aadanaha arrimaha horumarka sida akhriska iyo qorista dadka waaweyn, heerarka waxbarashada, iyo daryeelka caafimaadka. Ujeedada adeegsiga heerarka horumarineed ee dalalkan ku jira warqaddan ayaa ah in la darso xiriirka ka dhexeeya waddan kasta heerka horumarka iyo saamaynta dhibaatada dhaqaale ee ku aaddan qaabeynta xiriirka ka dhexeeya maamul iyo kobaca dhaqaale ee dalkaas. Si kale haddii loo dhigo, warqadani waxay isku dayeysaa inay ka jawaabto su’aasha soo socota: Saamaynta dhibaatada dhaqaale ee ku saabsan xiriirka ka dhexeeya koboca dhaqaalaha iyo dowladnimada ma kala duwanaan kartaa dal ilaa dal iyadoo lagu saleynayo waddan kasta heerka horumarkiisa?
Tijaabinta in xiriirka ka dhexeeya maamulka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha ay saameyn ku yeelatay dhibaatadii dhaqaale ee 2008 wuxuu u baahday in la isbarbar dhigo heerarka xiriirka labadaba kahor (2006-2008) iyo kadib (2009–2011) bilowga dhibaatada. Haddii dabeecadda xiriirku is beddesho ka dib markii xiisaddu bilaabatay, waxay taasi muujineysaa in dhibaatada dhaqaale ay saameyn ku yeelatay xiriirka u dhexeeya maamulka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha. Taa bedelkeeda, haddii nooca xiriirka uusan isbadalin, tani waxay muujineysaa in dhibaatada dhaqaale aysan saameyn ku yeelan xiriirka. Habkani waxaa lagu dabaqi doonaa dhammaan waddammada iyo mid kasta oo ka mid ah afarta koox ee horumarinta ee ummadaha looga hadlay joornaalka.
Iyadoo la tixraacayo gorfayntan hadda socota, taxane taxane ah oo iswaafajinno lammaane ah ayaa lagu qabtay inta udhaxeysa waxsoosaarka dhaqaalaha (GDP) iyo dhammaan lixda tilmaamayaal maamul oo si gooni gooni ah ugu saleysan HDI (Kooxda 1: horumar aad u sarreeya; Kooxda 2: horumar sare; Kooxda 3: horumar hoose; Kooxda 4: horumar hoose) iyo waliba si gooni gooni ah oo salka ku haya waqtiga (sanadaha oo dhan, ka hor dhibaatada dhaqaale, iyo ka dib bilawga dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka). Dhammaan falanqaynta waxaa lagu sameeyay iyadoo la adeegsanayo Stata 11 ka dib markii dib loo qaabeeyay xogta qaab ballaadhan ilaa qaab dheer.
Marka la eego cabirka muunada, xogta la diyaariyey oo dhameystiran waxaa ka mid ahaa xog ku saabsan 215 dal, iyada oo tirada muunada aan isbeddeleyn iyadoo lagu saleynayo waqtiga (tusaale ahaan, tirada muunada ee la xiriirta tirada waddamada isma beddelin iyadoon loo eegin haddii falanqaynta lagu sameeyay dhammaan xogta dejinta, ka hor dhibaatada dhaqaale, ama ka dib bilowga haddii dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka). Intaa waxaa sii dheer, maxaa yeelay kala-soocii ummadaha ee la xiriiray heerka horumarka ayaa laga dhaafay waddamada qaar (dalalka qaar looma kala saarin koox horumarineed), warqadda hada jirta waxaa loo kala saaray 46 dal oo ah horumar aad u sareeya (Kooxda 1), 45 dal oo ah horumar sare (Kooxda 2), 47 wadan oo horumarkoodu hooseeyo (Group 3), iyo 46 wadan oo horumarkoodu hooseeyo (Group 4).

6. Natiijooyinka iyo Doodda

Ugu horreyntii, isku xirnaansho ayaa laga dhex sameeyay GDP iyo tilmaame kasta oo ka mid ah lixda tilmaam maamul ee dhammaan waddammada adeegsanaya xogta laga soo bilaabo 2006 ilaa 2011. Shaxda 1 waxay muujineysaa isku xirnaan muhiim ah, xoog leh, oo togan oo udhaxeysa tilmaame kasta oo maamul iyo GDP kadib bilowgii dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka, iyada oo dhammaan isku xirnaanta ay ka sarreeyaan 0.50 heerka muhiimka ah α = 0.01. Xiriirradan muhiimka ahi isma beddelaan si gaar ah ka dib bilowgii dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka.
Jadwalka 1: Xiriirka u dhexeeya doorsoomayaasha dhammaan waddamada
Time Periods CC&GDP GE&GDP PS&GDP RL&GD P RQ&GDP VA&GDP
06-11 0.76* 0.77* 0.56* 0.74* 0.74* 0.47*
06-08 0.76* 0.76* 0.57* 0.73* 0.74* 0.46*
09-11 0.76* 0.78* 0.56* 0.76* 0.74* 0.49*
Fiiro gaar ah: * Xiriir muhiim ah at = 0.01; codka iyo la xisaabtanka (VA), xasilloonida siyaasadeed (PS), tayada sharciyeynta (RQ), ku dhaqanka sharciga (RL), waxtarka dowladda (GE), iyo xakamaynta musuqmaasuqa (CC); wadarta wax soo saarka gudaha (GDP).
Saamaynta heerka horumarka qaranku ku leeyahay xiriirka ka dhexeeya maamulka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha inta lagu jiro xilliyada dhibaatada waxaa looga hadlay Jadwalka 2aad. Heer aad u sarreeya oo horumarineed (Kooxda 1), isku xirnaan adag, muhiim ah, oo togan ayaa laga helay GDP iyo xakamaynta musuqmaasuqa (CC), halka isku xirnaan muhiim ah, togan, iyo mid dhex dhexaad ah laga helay marka loo eego wax soo saarka guud iyo tilmaamayaasha haray, marka laga reebo codka iyo la xisaabtanka (VA) ee falanqaynta sanadaha oo dhan Xidhiidhka ka dhexeeya GDP iyo VA ee Kooxda 1 waxaa lagu ogaadey inuu yahay mid muhiim ah, inkasta oo uu daciif yahay oo aan fiicnayn. Ka dib bilowgii dhibaatada dhaqaale, xiriirka ka dhexeeya tilmaamayaasha maamulka iyo GDP wuxuu noqday mid aad u wanaagsan marka la barbardhigo kahor intaan xiisaddu bilaabmin; si kastaba ha noqotee, VA waa tilmaanta kaliya ee xiriirka ay la leedahay GDP uu noqday mid aan muhiim aheyn ka dib bilowgii dhibaatada.
Heerka horumarka sare (Kooxda 2), cilaaqaadyo muhiim ah, togan, iyo dhexdhexaad ah ayaa laga helay inta udhaxeysa GDP iyo CC iyo xukunka sharciga (RL), halka cilaaqaadyo muhiim ah, wanaagsan, iyo daciifnimo laga helay GDP iyo waxtarka dowladda (GE), xasilloonida siyaasadeed (PS), iyo tayada sharciyeynta (RQ). Xiriirka ka dhexeeya VA iyo GDP looma helin inuu muhiim yahay. Taa bedelkeeda, ka dib bilowgii dhibaatada dhaqaale, cilaaqaadka lama helin inay si weyn uga duwan yihiin dhibaatada ka hor, marka laga reebo xiriirka ka dhexeeya RQ iyo GDP, oo ku guuldareystay inuu gaaro muhiimadda tirakoobka ee heerka muhiimadda 0.01.
Wadammada horumarinta dhexdhexaadka ah (Kooxda 3), markii diiradda la saarayo waqtiga oo dhan, xiriirro muhiim ah, daciif ah, iyo kuwo taban ayaa laga helay inta udhaxeysa GDP iyo GE iyo sidoo kale VA. Xiriir muhiim ah, daciif ah, oo wanaagsan ayaa laga helay inta udhaxeysa PS iyo GDP. Xidhiidhyadii la sameeyay kahor dhibaatada dhaqaale waxay kaliya heleen hal xiriir oo muhiim ah: xiriirka isla baaxada weyn ee udhaxeeya PS iyo GDP. Ugu dambeyntiina, xiriirradii la sameeyay bilowgii xiisadda dhaqaale ma helin natiijooyin wax ku ool ah.
Xidhiidhkii ugu dambeeyay, oo diiradda saaraya waddammada horumarka hooseeya (Kooxda 4), ayaa sidoo kale laga helay natiijooyin wax ku ool ah oo yar. Markaad diirada saareyso dhammaan xogta

set, muhiim ah, taban, inkasta oo xiriir daciif ah laga helay GDP iyo CC, halka xiriir muhiim ah, daciif ah, oo wanaagsan laga helay GDP iyo RQ. Xidhiidhyadii la sameeyay ka hor xiisadda dhaqaale ma helin natiijooyin wax ku ool ah, halka cilaaqaadyadii la sameeyay ka dib bilawgii dhibaatada dhaqaale ay kaliya ka heleen xidhiidh isku mid daciif ah iyo mid taban oo u dhexeeya GDP iyo CC si loo gaadho muhiimadda heerka ahmiyadda 0.01
Shaxda 2: R-Qiimayaasha (Isku xirnaanta) heerka horumarka ummadaha
Time Periods Groups CC& GDP GE& GDP PS& GDP RL& GDP RQ& GDP VA& GDP
06-11 Group 1 0.52* 0.42* 0.40* 0.40* 0.32* -0.17*
06-08 Group 1 0.48* 0.39* 0.38* 0.37* 0.31* -0.19*
09-11 Group 1 0.58* 0.48* 0.43* 0.45* 0.33* -0.13
06-11 Group 2 0.36* 0.28* 0.26* 0.37* 0.20* -0.05
06-08 Group 2 0.40* 0.30* 0.28* 0.39* 0.23* -0.03
09-11 Group 2 0.30* 0.26* 0.23* 0.33* 0.13 -0.09
06-11 Group 3 -0.08 -0.13* 0.17* -0.05 -0.03 -0.17*
06-08 Group 3 -0.07 -0.11 0.17* -0.05 0.00 -0.16
09-11 Group 3 -0.09 -0.16 0.17 -0.04 -0.07 -0.20
06-11 Group 4 -0.18* 0.10 0.06 -0.04 0.14* -0.06
06-08 Group 4 -0.14 0.11 0.07 -0.05 0.14 -0.08
09-11 Group 4 -0.23* 0.09 0.04 -0.02 0.13 -0.03

Fiiro gaar ah: * Xiriir muhiim ah at = 0.01; codka iyo la xisaabtanka (VA), xasilloonida siyaasadeed (PS), tayada sharciyeynta (RQ), ku dhaqanka sharciga (RL), waxtarka dowladda (GE), iyo xakamaynta musuqmaasuqa (CC); Kooxda 1 = horumar aad u sarreeya; Kooxda 2 = horumar sare; Kooxda 3 = horumarinta dhexdhexaadka ah; Kooxda 4 = horumar hoose; wadarta wax soo saarka gudaha (GDP).
Gunaanad iyo talo soo jeedin

Aragtida dowladnimadu waxay ka mid ahayd arrimaha sida weyn looga hadlay ugana doodsanaa sanadihii u dambeeyay dhinacyada cilmiga bulshada iyo dhinacyada kale. Dowladnimadu sidoo kale waxaa lala xiriiriyay horumarka aadanaha iyo dhaqaalaha. Kobaca dhaqaalaha, dhanka kale, waa walaaca koowaad ee ummadaha, xitaa kaba sii daran xilliyada dhibaatooyinka. Iyadoo la raacayo, dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka ee hadda jirta ayaa saameyn ku yeelatay dhammaan dhinacyada nolosha dadka, oo ay ku jiraan xiriirka ka dhexeeya xukunka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha.
Suugaantu waxay muujineysaa jiritaanka xiriirka ka dhexeeya xukunka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha, laakiin wax yar ayey ka sheegaysaa saameynta dhibaatada dhaqaale ee xiriirkaas. Maqaalka hadda lama muujin wax isbeddel ah oo la xiriira cilaaqaadyadan: Xiriirka ka dhexeeya koboca dhaqaalaha sida

oo lagu cabiray GDP-da qofkiiba iyo tilmaame kasta oo tilmaamayaasha maamulku waxay ahaayeen kuwo muhiim ah kahor iyo kadib bilawgii xiisaddii dhaqaale ee 2008.
Arrinta xiisaha lihi, falanqaynta saamaynta heerka horumarka ummaddu ku leedahay xidhiidhka ka dhexeeya dawladnimada iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha inta lagu jiro xilliyada dhibaatada ayaa muujisay cilaaqaadyo kala duwan oo u dhexeeya tilmaamayaasha maamulka iyo koritaanka umadaha leh heerar horumarineed oo kala duwan Wadammada horumarka aadka u sarreeya, dhammaan cilaaqaadka ka dhexeeya xukunka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha waxay ahaayeen kuwo muhiim ah ka dib bilowgii dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka marka laga reebo xiriirka ka dhexeeya VA iyo GDP. Umadaha horumarka sare, dhamaan cilaaqaadka udhaxeeya maamulka iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha waxay ahaayeen kuwo muhiim ah kadib bilowgii dhibaatada dhaqaale ee aduunka marka laga reebo xiriirka ka dhexeeya VA iyo GDP iyo kan udhaxeeya RQ iyo GDP. Wadammada horumarinta dhexdhexaadka ah, midkoodna cilaaqaadka u dhexeeya tilmaamayaasha dowladnimada iyo GDP-ga ma ahan mid muhiim ah ka dib bilowgii dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka. Ugu dambeyntiina, waddammada aan horumarsaneyn, CC wuxuu ahaa tilmaamaha kaliya ee muujiyey xiriir muhiim ah GDP kadib bilowgii dhibaatada dhaqaale ee adduunka Maqaalkani wuxuu ogaaday in heerarka horumarka ummadaha ay saameeyeen xiriirka ka dhexeeya xukunka iyo koritaanka si kala duwan xilliyada dhibaatooyinka. Si kale haddii loo dhigo, heerka horumarka dal wuxuu saameyn ku yeelanayaa saameynta dhibaatada dhaqaale ee qaabeynta xiriirka ka dhexeeya xukunka iyo koritaanka. Sidaa awgeed, dalalka leh heerar kala duwan oo horumarineed waxay leeyihiin shuruudo iyo dalabyo kala duwan oo lagu hagaajinayo dowladnimada laguna kobcinayo kobaca dhaqaalaha xilliyada dhibaatooyinka. Sidaa darteed, natiijadani waxay la jaanqaadaysaa suugaanta maamulka ee ka hadlaysa saamaynta heerka horumarka waddan ee qaabaynta xidhiidhka ka dhexeeya xukunka iyo koritaanka.
Maqaalka hadda jira wuxuu gacan ka geystaa suugaanta iyadoo la darsayo xiriirka ka dhexeeya dowladnimada iyo koritaanka xilliyada dhibaatooyinka. Cilmi-baaris badan ayaa lagu dhisi karaa natiijooyinka cilmi-baarista hadda jirta. Sida cilmi baarista badankeeda, adeegsiga doorsoomayaal badan waxay ku kordhin doontaa qiime badan cilmi baarista; si kastaba ha noqotee, qaar ka mid ah doorsoomayaasha ayaa laga yaabaa inay wax ku biiriyaan kuwa kale marka la falanqeynayo saameynta dhibaatada dhaqaale ee qaabeynta xiriirka ka dhexeeya xukunka iyo koritaanka. Tusaale ahaan, nooca siyaasadeed ee waddan wuxuu saameyn ku yeelan karaa habka dhibaatada dhaqaale ay u qaabeyso xiriirka ka dhexeeya xukunka iyo koritaanka waddankaas. Iyadoo la raacayo, in la darso in dawladuhu ay si kale u maamulaan inta lagu jiro xilliyada dhibaatooyinka iyada oo ay sabab u tahay qaab-dhismeedka nidaamyada siyaasadeed ee dalalkoodu waa mawduuc kale oo la soo jeediyey.
Intaa waxaa dheer, cilmi baaris dheeraad ah ayaa lagu baran karaa gobollo gaar ah ama dhaqaale. Sidii hore looga wada hadlay, dhaqaalaha ku-meel-gaadhka ah sida Shiinaha iyo Hindiya iyo dhaqaalaha saliidda hodanka ku ah sida Sacuudi Carabiya iyo Qatar waxay leeyihiin astaamo gaar ah oo qaabeeya xidhiidhka ka dhexeeya maamulka iyo koritaanka xilliyada dhibaatooyinka. Sidaa darteed, barashada saameynta dhibaatada dhaqaale ee xiriirka ka dhexeeya dowladnimada iyo kobaca dhaqaalahan waxay gacan ka geysan doonaan fahamkeena nidaamka dowladnimada iyo xiriirka ay la leedahay horumarka dhaqaalaha iyo aadanaha.

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